TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Syroha vs Matej Varcl 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511911119811
Matej Varcl
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Varcl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Syroha above · Matej Varcl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Matej Varcl at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Syroha 1–0 Matej Varcl Matej Varcl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Varcl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Syroha 1230 vs Varcl 1311
Varcl
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Syroha 40% vs Varcl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Syroha 40% vs Varcl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Syroha -2 · Varcl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Varcl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varcl form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSyroha 1.909 / Varcl 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varcl)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222559
Syroha1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 78 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back16% 12 of 74
Varcl1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 9 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSyroha1wins
AwayVarcl0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSyroha leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSyrohaVarclS − VBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.050.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSyrohaVarclBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 687 vs 26 / 4550.1%57.8%344 / 687 vs 26 / 45Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarclSyroha 1.91/Varcl 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Varcl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Varcl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 15 · 18:00M. Syroha501112142113M. Varcl50614121172
M. Syroha10
LOct 1 · 21:00M. Varcl1.6711613113M. Syroha2.103111141LOct 1 · 19:30M. Barta1.401111113M. Syroha2.759840LOct 1 · 18:00M. Syroha1.807770M. Lubas1.911111113WSep 30 · 17:03L. Havrda3.7510811101M. Syroha1.2512114123WSep 30 · 16:30M. Syroha1.2215119113L. Havrda4.001331161LSep 30 · 15:00M. Syroha1.8041111462M. Novotny1.91118811113LSep 30 · 14:00J. Grohsgott1.611111113M. Syroha2.206850LSep 26 · 20:58M. Syroha1.73311591V. Stach2.0011811113WSep 26 · 20:00L. Havrda4.00126631M. Syroha1.22101111113LSep 26 · 19:00J. Grohsgott1.731211113M. Syroha2.0010760
M. Varcl10
WOct 1 · 21:00M. Varcl1.6711613113M. Syroha2.103111141LOct 1 · 19:00M. Lubas2.3811811113M. Varcl1.53711761LOct 1 · 18:30M. Varcl1.73116841M. Barta2.0061111113WSep 24 · 21:30J. Grohsgott2.10612351M. Varcl1.65111011113LSep 24 · 20:00J. Grohsgott2.751412113M. Varcl1.40121070WSep 24 · 19:00J. Svec2.509111141M. Varcl1.5011139113WSep 24 · 18:30M. Varcl1.671111113V. Stach2.106490LSep 17 · 13:30M. Vaclavik2.00121112113M. Varcl1.731041481WSep 17 · 12:00M. Varcl2.00941113113M. Vaclavik1.73111151172WSep 17 · 11:30L. Madle2.3881191182M. Varcl1.53119117113
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