TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Guzik vs Marian Lebek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
119116117––––
H2H Michal Guzik 0–1 Marian Lebek Michal Guzik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:0854.0%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.8pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1536 vs Lebek 1441
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Lebek 80%
Lebek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 60% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +2 · Lebek +3
Lebek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lebek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 2.00 / Lebek 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lebek)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221533
Guzik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 6 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Lebek1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 242 of 390
Up 2–0, closes it96% 163 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it82% 215 of 262
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeGuzik0wins
AwayLebek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLebek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricGuzikLebekG − LBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.049.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 245 vs 866 / 148673.9%58.3%181 / 245 vs 866 / 1486Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LebekGuzik 2.00/Lebek 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 30 · 06:25M. Guzik4181181132M. Lebek49118118113
M. Guzik10
WSep 30 · 08:45M. Cesarz6.255740M. Guzik1.081111113WSep 30 · 07:35M. Guzik1.371111113J. Kaczmarek2.755940LSep 30 · 06:25M. Lebek2.20118118113M. Guzik1.5781181132WSep 30 · 05:10W. Urban2.3511128992M. Guzik1.509101111113LSep 30 · 03:35P. Adamus1.8891212113M. Guzik1.8211101061LSep 28 · 02:20S. Krupa2.901111113M. Guzik1.367680LSep 28 · 01:35M. Jozefiak—1111113M. Guzik—8770WSep 27 · 23:35R. Ogon5.651121621M. Guzik1.1171118113WSep 27 · 22:50R. Adach6.00851181M. Guzik1.0811118113WSep 27 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.1011410101M. Guzik1.6551112123
M. Lebek10
WOct 1 · 08:20M. Jozefiak2.106550M. Lebek1.671111113WOct 1 · 07:35A. Burkacki2.55951151M. Lebek1.4511118113WOct 1 · 05:35L. Oracz2.2551090M. Lebek1.551112113LOct 1 · 04:50P. Kurek2.00121158113M. Lebek1.70109111162WOct 1 · 03:10O. Sokolowski1.953580M. Lebek1.751111113LOct 1 · 02:20M. Jozefiak1.909121111113M. Lebek1.75111013572LOct 1 · 01:35A. Burkacki2.901112123M. Lebek1.35510100WSep 30 · 23:35L. Oracz2.60811771M. Lebek1.4211611113LSep 30 · 22:50O. Sokolowski2.1511119133M. Lebek1.606911111WSep 30 · 06:25M. Lebek2.20118118113M. Guzik1.5781181132
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