Michal Jozefiak vs Marian Lebek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Oct 1Finished

Michal Jozefiak

Home

1.90

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

91112101113115117

Marian Lebek

Away

1.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Marian Lebek to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

100 points played in total.

Set by set

91112101113115117

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 02:14

54.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75

short by 3.1pp

57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.75 (52%)

Lebek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Jozefiak 1331 vs Lebek 1433

Lebek

Wrong

both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Jozefiak 80% vs Lebek 40%

Jozefiak

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Jozefiak 80% vs Lebek 50%

Jozefiak

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Jozefiak -1 · Lebek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lebek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJozefiak 1.90 / Lebek 1.75

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Lebek)-3.1pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13225373

Jozefiak1.90

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Lebek1.75

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite63% won 238 of 380

Up 2–0, closes it96% 160 of 166

Up 1–0, closes it82% 211 of 257

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricJozefiakLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 24 vs 863 / 148145.8%58.3%11 / 24 vs 863 / 1481Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

Forecastthe model predicts this market

Match Winner

Lebek

Jozefiak 1.90/Lebek 1.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Lebek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Jozefiak won

Handicap · Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Jozefiak10