TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Kurek vs Michal Jozefiak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511118311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:49 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
811511118311––
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4954.7%Our read56.5%to break even at 1.77
short by 1.8pp56.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.77 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1425 vs Jozefiak 1320
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Jozefiak 100%
Jozefiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Jozefiak 70%
Jozefiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +4 · Jozefiak +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jozefiak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.77 / Jozefiak 1.93
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kurek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13224995
Kurek1.77
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 238 of 368
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 166 of 199
Jozefiak1.93
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekJozefiakBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 895 vs 10 / 2250.7%45.5%454 / 895 vs 10 / 22Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.77/Jozefiak 1.93
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jozefiak won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
P. Kurek10
WOct 1 · 01:10P. Kurek1.54861111113O. Sokolowski2.3511117532WSep 30 · 22:25P. Kurek1.8011125113L. Oracz1.906101181WSep 30 · 21:10P. Kurek2.251111113M. Lebek1.558580WSep 30 · 02:00M. Adamus2.05941181P. Kurek1.6811119113WSep 30 · 01:10P. Adamus1.757770P. Kurek1.951111113LSep 30 · 00:25P. Kurek1.5093100O. Sokolowski2.351111123LSep 29 · 22:50P. Kurek2.40631171M. Tkocz1.5011119113LSep 29 · 22:00M. Lebek1.8511118113P. Kurek1.80681171WSep 29 · 20:45P. Kurek1.3311117113O. Sokolowski3.10661191LSep 29 · 19:10P. Kurek1.60119681M. Sikon2.1561111113
M. Jozefiak10
LOct 1 · 00:45L. Oracz2.05119115113M. Jozefiak1.7071171182WSep 30 · 23:10M. Jozefiak1.60141197113A. Burkacki2.10127111172WSep 30 · 22:00M. Jozefiak—116117113O. Sokolowski—31191162WSep 28 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz—12960M. Jozefiak—1411113WSep 28 · 01:35M. Jozefiak—1111113M. Guzik—8770WSep 28 · 00:25R. Adach—11116572M. Jozefiak—581111113LSep 27 · 23:10S. Krupa—81111113M. Jozefiak—117881WSep 27 · 21:35R. Ogon—10611131M. Jozefiak—12117153WSep 27 · 20:45R. Adach—135981M. Jozefiak—111111113LSep 27 · 19:35M. Jozefiak—127891M. Guzik—101111113
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