TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Felkel vs Marcin Jadczyk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11614128111311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 86 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 67–45 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 45 of their 112 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Felkel beat Jadczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:38What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-45 in 112
Felkel
Correct
gap of 22 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1989 vs Jadczyk 1915
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 100% vs Jadczyk 60%
Felkel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 90% vs Jadczyk 70%
Felkel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel +5 · Jadczyk +1
Felkel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.83 / Jadczyk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Felkel)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13206271
Felkel1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Jadczyk1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel60%3 of 5
AwayJadczyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Felkel5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Felkel3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Felkel4Jadczyk5n = 9Jadczyk took 5 of 9
S5Felkel4Jadczyk2n = 6Felkel took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelJadczykF − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.7+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1145 vs 978 / 168259.2%58.2%678 / 1145 vs 978 / 1682Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.83/Jadczyk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 06:05G. Felkel3521111113M. Jadczyk25112571
LSep 21 · 09:40G. Felkel4211119652M. Jadczyk40431111113
WSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel49128711113M. Jadczyk43101111472
LSep 17 · 04:30G. Felkel218760M. Jadczyk331111113
LSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel31791141M. Jadczyk3811115113
WSep 16 · 03:45G. Felkel50111189113M. Jadczyk3887111112
WSep 10 · 10:25G. Felkel44611115113M. Jadczyk3911781122
WSep 10 · 04:20G. Felkel52116911153M. Jadczyk44511114132
LSep 9 · 10:25G. Felkel32119751M. Jadczyk3961111113
LAug 26 · 09:40G. Felkel4381191142M. Jadczyk48119116113
G. Felkel10
WSep 28 · 08:30K. Petas1.611111871G. Felkel2.2013611113WSep 28 · 07:20G. Felkel1.831111113T. Spanik1.835370WSep 28 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.91112571G. Felkel1.8021111113WSep 28 · 04:55P. Chodorski2.25111111792G. Felkel1.57971311113WSep 28 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.6710930G. Felkel2.101211113LSep 22 · 13:45G. Felkel1.91117871A. Wiecek1.8091111113WSep 22 · 12:30G. Felkel1.531111113K. Kolodziej2.389990WSep 22 · 11:15G. Felkel1.361114113J. Braun3.0091260WSep 22 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.8041161172G. Felkel1.91117118113WSep 22 · 09:20G. Felkel2.00118911113D. Michna1.7381111792
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 28 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.206950T. Spanik1.611111113WSep 28 · 07:45J. Kosowski2.001011841M. Jadczyk1.7012711113LSep 28 · 06:55K. Petas1.911211113M. Jadczyk1.8010650LSep 28 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.91112571G. Felkel1.8021111113WSep 28 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.91111111113T. Spanik1.80513761WSep 28 · 03:45P. Chodorski1.91101181472M. Jadczyk1.801251112113WSep 27 · 13:45K. Kolodziej2.63121011342M. Jadczyk1.441012911113WSep 27 · 12:55K. Petas2.105161151M. Jadczyk1.6711185113WSep 27 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6711611113M. Miastowski2.10711951LSep 27 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.009950T. Spanik1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
G. Felkel
Sep 28 · 11:40G. Felkel1.57P. Chodorski2.25—Sep 28 · 12:30G. Felkel2.20K. Petas1.61—Sep 28 · 14:10G. Felkel1.83T. Spanik1.83—Sep 29 · 03:00G. Felkel1.53J. Zandecki2.38—Sep 29 · 04:10G. Felkel1.67P. Chodorski2.10—Sep 29 · 05:40G. Felkel2.63P. David1.44—Sep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 29 · 08:30G. Felkel2.25J. Kosowski1.57—Sep 29 · 09:20G. Felkel2.63P. David1.44—Sep 29 · 10:00G. Felkel1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
M. Jadczyk
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