TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Petas vs Marcin Jadczyk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111618115511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 16-18
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 48–77 Marcin Jadczyk Kacper Petas has won 48 of their 125 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Jadczyk beat Petas 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-77 in 125
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 29 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1954 vs Jadczyk 1855
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 70% vs Jadczyk 50%
Petas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +1 · Jadczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 2.10 / Jadczyk 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jadczyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13200195
Petas2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Jadczyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 394 of 630
Up 2–0, closes it96% 200 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it82% 308 of 377
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas4wins
AwayJadczyk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas50%3 of 6
AwayJadczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas6Jadczyk4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S2Petas5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Petas3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Petas3Jadczyk5n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasJadczykP − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.539.1−4.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime684 / 1293 vs 980 / 168452.9%58.2%684 / 1293 vs 980 / 1684Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykPetas 2.10/Jadczyk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 07:45K. Petas197570M. Jadczyk331111113
LSep 26 · 04:30K. Petas35118971M. Jadczyk3961111113
LSep 14 · 13:45K. Petas27214471M. Jadczyk45111211113
WSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas4111613113M. Jadczyk355111181
WSep 13 · 10:25K. Petas51812911113M. Jadczyk47111011872
LSep 1 · 06:05K. Petas3781111342M. Jadczyk50118911113
WAug 31 · 09:40K. Petas331111113M. Jadczyk238870
LAug 31 · 06:05K. Petas32114981M. Jadczyk4291111113
WAug 26 · 13:45K. Petas3911114133M. Jadczyk368611111
LAug 26 · 06:55K. Petas31114971M. Jadczyk4181111113
K. Petas10
WSep 27 · 11:40K. Petas1.2511117113G. Adamiak3.75991141LSep 27 · 10:00K. Petas1.80711891K. Kolodziej1.9111911113WSep 27 · 09:00K. Petas2.001112113T. Spanik1.7371040LSep 27 · 07:45K. Petas2.107570M. Jadczyk1.671111113WSep 27 · 06:30K. Petas1.831111123M. Miastowski1.8376100WSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas1.8361211113T. Spanik1.831110831LSep 27 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.831311113K. Petas1.8311820WSep 27 · 03:25K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.755320WSep 26 · 14:10A. Abbasi2.001191051K. Petas1.7391112113WSep 26 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.8081160K. Petas1.911113113
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 27 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6711611113M. Miastowski2.10711951LSep 27 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.009950T. Spanik1.731111113WSep 27 · 09:40G. Adamiak2.759360M. Jadczyk1.401111113WSep 27 · 07:45K. Petas2.107570M. Jadczyk1.671111113LSep 27 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.501211710113M. Jadczyk1.50101111282WSep 27 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.3611115113G. Adamiak3.00891181LSep 27 · 04:30M. Jadczyk2.50111091182T. Spanik1.50912117113WSep 27 · 03:45M. Miastowski2.502121141M. Jadczyk1.5011148113LSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:55G. Adamiak2.751191113113M. Jadczyk1.4071171592
Upcoming Matches
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M. Jadczyk
Sep 28 · 03:45M. Jadczyk1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Sep 28 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.91T. Spanik1.80—Sep 28 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.91G. Felkel1.80—Sep 28 · 06:55M. Jadczyk1.80K. Petas1.91—Sep 28 · 09:40M. Jadczyk1.91G. Felkel1.80—Sep 28 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.91T. Spanik1.80—Sep 28 · 12:55M. Jadczyk1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Sep 28 · 13:45M. Jadczyk1.80K. Petas1.91—
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