TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Tuma vs Vladimir Cermak 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412118711116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 80 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 51–61 Vladimir Cermak Daniel Tuma has won 51 of their 112 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:55What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-61 in 112
Cermak
Wrong
gap of 10 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1623 vs Cermak 1539
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 60% vs Cermak 40%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 70% vs Cermak 40%
Tuma
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma -1 · Cermak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 2.00 / Cermak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tuma)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13199259
Tuma2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 25)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 164 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back30% 54 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back11% 10 of 95
Cermak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 26)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 148 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it91% 74 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it78% 118 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma7wins
AwayCermak3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma60%3 of 5
AwayCermak20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma5Cermak5n = 10split evenly
S2Tuma7Cermak3n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S3Tuma5Cermak5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuma4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S5Tuma4Cermak1n = 5Tuma took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaCermakT − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.243.20.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1485 vs 554 / 109052.5%50.8%780 / 1485 vs 554 / 1090Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 2.00/Cermak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 02:30D. Tuma43111155113V. Cermak4086111142
WSep 24 · 12:30D. Tuma3911116113V. Cermak33861181
WSep 23 · 16:30D. Tuma43101111113V. Cermak34125981
LSep 23 · 11:30D. Tuma48116119112V. Cermak53911911133
LSep 18 · 01:30D. Tuma34119771V. Cermak4071111113
WSep 14 · 12:00D. Tuma47411119123V. Cermak49118911102
WSep 8 · 23:30D. Tuma47115911113V. Cermak4481111952
WAug 17 · 08:59D. Tuma4351412123V. Cermak43111210101
WAug 17 · 08:00D. Tuma524121114113V. Cermak55111091692
LJul 23 · 10:30D. Tuma367118101V. Cermak4111711123
D. Tuma10
LSep 25 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.901111113D. Tuma1.805760WSep 25 · 20:00M. Vedmoch2.755880D. Tuma1.401111113WSep 25 · 19:00T. Janata1.6751181172D. Tuma2.10115119113LSep 25 · 18:30D. Tuma1.67971371J. Stolfa2.10111111113WSep 25 · 03:30D. Tuma1.551111123F. Just2.3079100WSep 25 · 02:30D. Tuma2.00111155113V. Cermak1.7386111142WSep 25 · 01:30F. Just3.0088111162D. Tuma1.36111199113WSep 25 · 00:00D. Tuma1.61111110113D. Kouble2.20681291WSep 24 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.00115791D. Tuma1.3671111113LSep 24 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.73118115113D. Tuma2.0061151142
V. Cermak10
LSep 26 · 03:00V. Cermak2.2512691172D. Kouble1.571011114113LSep 26 · 02:30T. Janata1.671111113V. Cermak2.107360WSep 26 · 01:00V. Postelt2.108690V. Cermak1.671111113LSep 25 · 23:30V. Cermak1.4011961172M. Vedmoch2.75811119113WSep 25 · 22:00V. Cermak2.0011611113D. Kouble1.73811871WSep 25 · 02:58M. Vedmoch2.5036100V. Cermak1.501111123LSep 25 · 02:30D. Tuma2.00111155113V. Cermak1.7386111142LSep 25 · 01:00D. Kouble1.611111153V. Cermak2.2084130WSep 24 · 23:30V. Cermak1.5771111113F. Just2.25117731LSep 24 · 22:00V. Cermak1.4411411652M. Vedmoch2.63911711113
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