TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Svacha vs Jiri Ruzicka 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181214811118118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Svacha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Svacha above · Jiri Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ondrej Svacha at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Svacha 66–62 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 62 of their 128 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Svacha beat Ruzicka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-62 in 128
Svacha
Correct
gap of 4 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svacha 1741 vs Ruzicka 1771
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svacha 80% vs Ruzicka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svacha 60% vs Ruzicka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svacha +2 · Ruzicka +3
Ruzicka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvacha 1.85 / Ruzicka 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ruzicka)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13192586
Svacha1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Ruzicka1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvacha6wins
AwayRuzicka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSvacha leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvacha80%4 of 5
AwayRuzicka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svacha5Ruzicka5n = 10split evenly
S2Svacha7Ruzicka3n = 10Svacha took 7 of 10
S3Svacha8Ruzicka2n = 10Svacha took 8 of 10
S4Svacha3Ruzicka3n = 6split evenly
S5Svacha1Ruzicka2n = 3Ruzicka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvachaRuzickaS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.337.6+1.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvachaRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 788 vs 692 / 142250.5%48.7%398 / 788 vs 692 / 1422Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaSvacha 1.85/Ruzicka 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svacha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 22:30O. Svacha331111113J. Ruzicka229850
WSep 19 · 03:30O. Svacha331111113J. Ruzicka226880
LSep 19 · 02:30O. Svacha471211211112J. Ruzicka56149119133
LSep 14 · 24:00O. Svacha30931261J. Ruzicka43111110113
WSep 12 · 21:30O. Svacha361411113J. Ruzicka2612680
LSep 12 · 18:00O. Svacha46121411272J. Ruzicka541016611113
LSep 10 · 01:30O. Svacha36791281J. Ruzicka43111110113
WSep 2 · 14:30O. Svacha51711911133J. Ruzicka48118117112
WAug 28 · 03:00O. Svacha48131111133J. Ruzicka401595111
WAug 27 · 23:00O. Svacha331111113J. Ruzicka228590
O. Svacha10
WSep 25 · 02:00O. Svacha1.671111113M. Wagner2.101570WSep 25 · 01:00O. Svacha2.001211113R. Urbaniec1.7310980LSep 25 · 24:00A. Barton1.731211113O. Svacha2.0010870WSep 24 · 22:30J. Ruzicka1.839850O. Svacha1.831111113WSep 23 · 13:00M. Wagner2.1012691192O. Svacha1.671011115113LSep 23 · 12:30O. Svacha2.1081120R. Urbaniec1.671113113LSep 23 · 11:00O. Svacha1.611112771J. Simecek2.20131011113WSep 23 · 10:00M. Wagner1.911111851O. Svacha1.8051311113LSep 22 · 02:58R. Urbaniec1.6113191011113O. Svacha2.20112112662WSep 22 · 02:00M. Wagner1.6769140O. Svacha2.101111163
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 25 · 01:30J. Ruzicka2.3881311113A. Barton1.531111871WSep 25 · 24:30M. Wagner1.8071351132J. Ruzicka1.911111118113WSep 24 · 23:30R. Urbaniec2.63581181J. Ruzicka1.4411117113LSep 24 · 22:30J. Ruzicka1.839850O. Svacha1.831111113WSep 24 · 16:59J. Kanera1.83651215112J. Ruzicka1.8311111013133LSep 24 · 16:30M. Jezek2.0081111133J. Ruzicka1.731167111LSep 24 · 15:30J. Ruzicka1.8389111392J. Kanera1.831111811113LSep 24 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.571161110113J. Ruzicka2.2561171292LSep 19 · 03:30J. Ruzicka2.006880O. Svacha1.731111113WSep 19 · 02:30J. Ruzicka2.00149119133O. Svacha1.731211211112
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