TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Napirko vs Valerii Vlasenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111151614611711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 105–75 Valerii Vlasenko Valerii Vlasenko has won 75 of their 180 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Napirko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
105-75 in 180
Napirko
Wrong
gap of 30 in 180, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1646 vs Vlasenko 1513
Napirko
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 100% vs Vlasenko 40%
Napirko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 80% vs Vlasenko 40%
Napirko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +5 · Vlasenko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Napirko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vlasenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.80 / Vlasenko 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Napirko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13190198
Napirko1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 76 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it72% 62 of 86
Vlasenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko5wins
AwayVlasenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko75%3 of 4
AwayVlasenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Napirko7Vlasenko3n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S3Napirko3Vlasenko7n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S4Napirko4Vlasenko5n = 9Vlasenko took 5 of 9
S5Napirko2Vlasenko1n = 3Napirko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoVlasenkoN − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.841.1−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime428 / 852 vs 405 / 92550.2%43.8%428 / 852 vs 405 / 925Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.80/Vlasenko 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.7%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 00:15O. Napirko4311713123V. Vlasenko3971111101
LSep 19 · 13:05O. Napirko2147100V. Vlasenko341111123
WSep 17 · 23:45O. Napirko521111910113V. Vlasenko4899111272
WSep 16 · 02:45O. Napirko47911511113V. Vlasenko4211511872
WSep 13 · 09:35O. Napirko4171112113V. Vlasenko331141081
WSep 8 · 22:45O. Napirko4011117113V. Vlasenko30851161
LSep 6 · 05:35O. Napirko351061181V. Vlasenko4312119113
LAug 27 · 02:15O. Napirko52111461382V. Vlasenko556121115113
LAug 25 · 02:15O. Napirko4210121191V. Vlasenko46121013113
LAug 18 · 02:15O. Napirko35811791V. Vlasenko4111811113
O. Napirko10
WSep 26 · 00:30O. Napirko1.334111110113O. Mitla3.2511931272WSep 25 · 23:00O. Napirko1.67661111113V. Boyko2.1011117972WSep 25 · 21:30O. Napirko1.611111113M. Smyrnov2.209950WSep 25 · 20:00O. Napirko2.00711911113R. Lazebnyi1.7311511672WSep 24 · 02:45M. Smyrnov2.104930O. Napirko1.671111113LSep 24 · 01:45S. Berezynskyi1.73511119113O. Napirko2.0011971182WSep 24 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.1071111101O. Napirko1.6711713123WSep 23 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53115571O. Napirko2.3881111113LSep 23 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0071211113O. Napirko1.731110491WSep 20 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.10491441O. Napirko1.67111112113
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 26 · 01:00V. Vlasenko2.1013881192V. Boyko1.671111118113LSep 26 · 00:00V. Vlasenko2.387770R. Lazebnyi1.531111113LSep 25 · 22:30V. Vlasenko1.7341191162O. Mitla2.00117116113WSep 25 · 20:30V. Vlasenko2.20715115173M. Smyrnov1.611113911152WSep 25 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.201261191V. Vlasenko1.6114119113WSep 25 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.5011115123S. Berezynskyi1.503711101LSep 25 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.258813151O. Hura1.57111111173LSep 24 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.806440O. Mitla1.911111113WSep 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.2511411113M. Smyrnov1.57911881LSep 24 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.1071111101O. Napirko1.6711713123
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