TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Mugowski vs Kamil Rudomina 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1147111113811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Rudomina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Mugowski above · Kamil Rudomina below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Kamil Rudomina at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 69–66 Kamil Rudomina Kamil Rudomina has won 66 of their 135 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Rudomina beat Mugowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rudomina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-66 in 135
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1336 vs Rudomina 1511
Rudomina
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 40% vs Rudomina 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 20% vs Rudomina 50%
Rudomina
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +2 · Rudomina +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rudomina) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rudomina form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 2.10 / Rudomina 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Rudomina)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13189735
Mugowski2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 169 of 415
Down 0–1, comes back26% 64 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back15% 20 of 135
Rudomina1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 203 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it77% 146 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski6wins
AwayRudomina4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayRudomina75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski6Rudomina4n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S2Mugowski5Rudomina5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski6Rudomina4n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S4Mugowski4Rudomina5n = 9Rudomina took 5 of 9
S5Mugowski3Rudomina2n = 5Mugowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiRudominaM − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.340.7+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiRudominaBasisWin rate · lifetime909 / 1986 vs 967 / 207845.8%46.5%909 / 1986 vs 967 / 2078Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RudominaMugowski 2.10/Rudomina 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Rudomina · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rudomina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 22:55A. Mugowski43121163113K. Rudomina49109111182
WSep 17 · 20:05A. Mugowski351111133K. Rudomina2889110
WAug 30 · 22:55A. Mugowski4212118113K. Rudomina381081191
LAug 9 · 21:05A. Mugowski34413891K. Rudomina44111111113
LAug 9 · 19:20A. Mugowski44119311102K. Rudomina43911110123
WJul 27 · 00:10A. Mugowski4211911113K. Rudomina33511981
WJul 26 · 21:45A. Mugowski511012117113K. Rudomina48121061192
WJun 26 · 05:15A. Mugowski48117118113K. Rudomina3971151152
LJun 26 · 03:00A. Mugowski4375111192K. Rudomina48111196113
LJun 11 · 15:25A. Mugowski31861161K. Rudomina3711114113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 25 · 22:50A. Mugowski2.001211113J. Wozniak1.7310970WSep 25 · 22:30A. Mugowski1.83111189113R. Malinowski1.8388111162LSep 25 · 21:45K. Rudomina1.671124113A. Mugowski2.1082290LSep 25 · 20:30A. Mugowski3.756680K. Staszczyk1.251111113LSep 25 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.36111111113A. Mugowski3.00991381LSep 25 · 18:05R. Malinowski1.6791111113A. Mugowski2.10116581LSep 25 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.7391111113A. Mugowski2.00114761LSep 24 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn2.301111113A. Mugowski1.559990LSep 24 · 13:05B. Czerwinski1.601111113A. Mugowski2.159890LSep 24 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.1581181162F. Krcil1.60119116113
K. Rudomina10
WSep 25 · 23:35J. Wozniak2.38711891K. Rudomina1.5311711113LSep 25 · 23:15K. Rudomina1.839611141R. Malinowski1.8311117163LSep 25 · 22:05K. Staszczyk1.501111123K. Rudomina2.5048100WSep 25 · 21:45K. Rudomina1.671124113A. Mugowski2.1082290LSep 25 · 20:05K. Rudomina3.255880T. Filbrandt1.331111113WSep 25 · 18:50K. Rudomina1.731113108113R. Malinowski2.00911121192WSep 25 · 17:20K. Rudomina1.83711117113B. Sulkowski1.8311881162LSep 25 · 16:05K. Rudomina2.634850K. Staszczyk1.441111113LSep 24 · 23:20B. Sulkowski1.6111117113K. Rudomina2.20691171WSep 24 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.443111111112K. Rudomina2.63112913133
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
Sep 26 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Poloszczanski——Sep 26 · 16:55A. Mugowski—J. Glanowski——Sep 26 · 18:10A. Mugowski—T. Filbrandt——Sep 26 · 19:20A. Mugowski—K. Guminski——Sep 26 · 20:30A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 26 · 21:30A. Mugowski—J. Glanowski——Sep 26 · 21:55A. Mugowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 26 · 23:20A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 27 · 00:10A. Mugowski—D. Poloszczanski——
K. Rudomina
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