TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Mugowski vs Konrad Staszczyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:54 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Mugowski above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 76.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 1–5 Konrad Staszczyk Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:54What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Staszczyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1316 vs Staszczyk 1608
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 292 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 0% vs Staszczyk 60%
Staszczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 20% vs Staszczyk 60%
Staszczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -7 · Staszczyk +1
Mugowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 3.75 / Staszczyk 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Staszczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13192098
Mugowski3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 169 of 415
Down 0–1, comes back26% 64 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back15% 20 of 135
Staszczyk1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 180 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it90% 74 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMugowski1wins
AwayStaszczyk5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStaszczyk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski2Staszczyk4n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S2Mugowski1Staszczyk5n = 6Staszczyk took 5 of 6
S3Mugowski3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S4Mugowski2Staszczyk3n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMugowskiStaszczykM − SBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.539.3−3.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime907 / 1982 vs 222 / 38945.8%57.1%907 / 1982 vs 222 / 389Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykMugowski 3.75/Staszczyk 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 18 · 00:35A. Mugowski206860K. Staszczyk331111113
LMay 23 · 19:25A. Mugowski358611101K. Staszczyk4311119123
LMay 22 · 00:35A. Mugowski31911471K. Staszczyk4011711113
LMay 21 · 22:10A. Mugowski411189131K. Staszczyk4691111153
WApr 28 · 01:00A. Mugowski3911611113K. Staszczyk29411681
LApr 27 · 22:35A. Mugowski4798111182K. Staszczyk45111157113
A. Mugowski10
LSep 25 · 21:45K. Rudomina1.671124113A. Mugowski2.1082290LSep 25 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.36111111113A. Mugowski3.00991381LSep 25 · 18:05R. Malinowski1.6791111113A. Mugowski2.10116581LSep 25 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.7391111113A. Mugowski2.00114761LSep 24 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn2.301111113A. Mugowski1.559990LSep 24 · 13:05B. Czerwinski1.601111113A. Mugowski2.159890LSep 24 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.1581181162F. Krcil1.60119116113LSep 24 · 10:35A. Mugowski5.75814512102K. Wisniewski1.1211121110123WSep 24 · 09:50R. Stapor1.851011116112A. Mugowski1.80128711133WSep 24 · 08:35W. Iwasyszyn1.951171111102A. Mugowski1.75911139123
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 25 · 21:20R. Malinowski3.008730K. Staszczyk1.361111113WSep 25 · 18:30B. Sulkowski2.505101141K. Staszczyk1.5011124113LSep 25 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.911211113K. Staszczyk1.8010840WSep 25 · 16:05K. Rudomina2.634850K. Staszczyk1.441111113WSep 25 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.531111113D. Solilo2.384920LSep 24 · 23:45K. Klocek3.50115711113K. Staszczyk1.2861111632LSep 24 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.443111111112K. Rudomina2.63112913133LSep 24 · 21:50B. Sulkowski3.4011411113K. Staszczyk1.30611691WSep 23 · 23:20D. Solilo2.38911941K. Staszczyk1.5311511113WSep 23 · 22:35K. Kapik2.003460K. Staszczyk1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
Sep 25 · 22:30A. Mugowski1.83R. Malinowski1.83—Sep 25 · 22:50A. Mugowski2.00J. Wozniak1.73—Sep 26 · 00:20A. Mugowski2.10K. Rudomina1.67—Sep 26 · 01:10A. Mugowski3.75K. Staszczyk1.25—Sep 26 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Poloszczanski——Sep 26 · 16:55A. Mugowski—J. Glanowski——Sep 26 · 18:10A. Mugowski—T. Filbrandt——Sep 26 · 19:20A. Mugowski—K. Guminski——Sep 26 · 20:30A. Mugowski—D. Kotwica——Sep 26 · 21:30A. Mugowski—J. Glanowski——
K. Staszczyk
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