TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Radoslaw Malinowski vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116115118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeRadoslaw Malinowski to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadoslaw Malinowski above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Radoslaw Malinowski at 56.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radoslaw Malinowski 11–8 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:06What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Malinowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Malinowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malinowski 1385 vs Mugowski 1342
Malinowski
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malinowski 20% vs Mugowski 0%
Malinowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malinowski 10% vs Mugowski 30%
Mugowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malinowski -1 · Mugowski -5
Mugowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Malinowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalinowski 1.67 / Mugowski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Malinowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13195600
Malinowski1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 45 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Mugowski2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 169 of 415
Down 0–1, comes back26% 64 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back15% 20 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalinowski5wins
AwayMugowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalinowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMugowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malinowski6Mugowski4n = 10Malinowski took 6 of 10
S2Malinowski4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S3Malinowski4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S4Malinowski3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly
S5Malinowski2Mugowski1n = 3Malinowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalinowskiMugowskiMalinowski − MugowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.137.7−0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalinowskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 480 vs 907 / 198047.7%45.8%229 / 480 vs 907 / 1980Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalinowskiMalinowski 1.67/Mugowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Malinowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Malinowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LFeb 10 · 05:10R. Malinowski351011681A. Mugowski4312911113
LJan 17 · 09:20R. Malinowski268990A. Mugowski331111113
WDec 24 · 07:05R. Malinowski351311113A. Mugowski2911990
LDec 14 · 06:20R. Malinowski239860A. Mugowski331111113
WNov 15 · 02:00R. Malinowski331111113A. Mugowski238690
LNov 14 · 23:35R. Malinowski339101131A. Mugowski4311129113
WOct 2 · 07:45R. Malinowski541110814113A. Mugowski53912111292
LOct 1 · 07:45R. Malinowski4811991182A. Mugowski48911116113
WSep 13 · 05:45R. Malinowski3711114113A. Mugowski24461131
WAug 12 · 15:50R. Malinowski47126117113A. Mugowski48101171192
R. Malinowski10
LSep 25 · 16:55R. Malinowski3.25681431T. Filbrandt1.33111112113WSep 12 · 13:50K. Rudomina1.80581141R. Malinowski1.8611119113LSep 12 · 13:00D. Solilo1.5011119113R. Malinowski2.30841191LSep 12 · 12:10R. Malinowski4.206870G. Poliniewicz1.161111113LSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:45G. Kesik1.90111011113R. Malinowski1.80612761LSep 12 · 08:30K. Rudomina1.801111113R. Malinowski1.867990LSep 12 · 07:15R. Malinowski4.205990G. Poliniewicz1.161111113LSep 12 · 06:00P. Maruszak1.8611611113R. Malinowski1.80511691LSep 12 · 04:50K. Wisniewski1.27812118113R. Malinowski3.25111051172
A. Mugowski10
LSep 25 · 16:30B. Sulkowski1.7391111113A. Mugowski2.00114761LSep 24 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn2.301111113A. Mugowski1.559990LSep 24 · 13:05B. Czerwinski1.601111113A. Mugowski2.159890LSep 24 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.1581181162F. Krcil1.60119116113LSep 24 · 10:35A. Mugowski5.75814512102K. Wisniewski1.1211121110123WSep 24 · 09:50R. Stapor1.851011116112A. Mugowski1.80128711133WSep 24 · 08:35W. Iwasyszyn1.951171111102A. Mugowski1.75911139123LSep 24 · 07:20A. Mugowski2.206790R. Stapor1.601111113LSep 24 · 06:05F. Krcil1.41111113113A. Mugowski2.60641531WSep 24 · 04:55M. Lukaszewski1.9591111101A. Mugowski1.7011135123
Upcoming Matches
R. Malinowski
A. Mugowski
Sep 25 · 19:15A. Mugowski3.00T. Filbrandt1.36—Sep 25 · 20:30A. Mugowski3.75K. Staszczyk1.25—Sep 25 · 21:45A. Mugowski2.10K. Rudomina1.67—Sep 25 · 22:30A. Mugowski2.10R. Malinowski1.67—Sep 25 · 22:50A. Mugowski2.00J. Wozniak1.73—Sep 26 · 00:20A. Mugowski2.10K. Rudomina1.67—Sep 26 · 01:10A. Mugowski3.40K. Staszczyk1.30—Sep 26 · 15:25A. Mugowski—D. Poloszczanski——Sep 26 · 16:55A. Mugowski—J. Glanowski——Sep 26 · 18:10A. Mugowski—T. Filbrandt——
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