TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Nocun vs Mateusz Baran 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113611118115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
113611118115––
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 5–4 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Nocun beat Baran 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1458 vs Baran 1408
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Baran 80%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 60% vs Baran 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +3 · Baran +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.62 / Baran 2.15
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13184192
Nocun1.62
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 328 of 495
Up 2–0, closes it94% 162 of 173
Up 1–0, closes it85% 239 of 281
Baran2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 33 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNocun5wins
AwayBaran4wins
5 of 9 to a deciderNocun leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun60%3 of 5
AwayBaran50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Baran4n = 9Nocun took 5 of 9
S2Nocun6Baran3n = 9Nocun took 6 of 9
S3Nocun7Baran2n = 9Nocun took 7 of 9
S4Nocun2Baran5n = 7Baran took 5 of 7
S5Nocun2Baran3n = 5Baran took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricNocunBaranN − BBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match43.439.2+4.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime699 / 1168 vs 96 / 18059.9%53.3%699 / 1168 vs 96 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.62/Baran 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 24 · 18:45Z. Nocun591881111113M. Baran47161151322
LSep 17 · 23:45Z. Nocun4171171152M. Baran46117116113
LSep 17 · 15:50Z. Nocun351171161M. Baran4381113113
WSep 10 · 23:45Z. Nocun331111113M. Baran176560
LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun4481111862M. Baran48117811113
WAug 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun331111113M. Baran173770
WAug 6 · 17:45Z. Nocun4171111123M. Baran311155101
WAug 2 · 23:45Z. Nocun571011169113M. Baran52126141192
LAug 2 · 15:50Z. Nocun4812811982M. Baran521011911113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 25 · 03:05Z. Nocun1.74631111113A. Staniczek1.9911118852WSep 25 · 01:55Z. Nocun1.4214114113M. Lewczuk2.651281191WSep 25 · 00:45H. Tkaczyk1.7781181152Z. Nocun1.95119117113LSep 24 · 23:55Z. Nocun1.776890G. Mucha1.951111113LSep 24 · 22:20Z. Nocun3.32811441D. Molenda1.2911511113LSep 24 · 21:05Z. Nocun1.359790A. Staniczek2.901111113WSep 24 · 19:55Z. Nocun1.7551111113M. Lewczuk1.95117871WSep 24 · 18:45M. Baran2.25161151322Z. Nocun1.571881111113WSep 24 · 17:55Z. Nocun1.8211911113G. Mucha1.88411931LSep 24 · 02:10A. Staniczek3.401111113Z. Nocun1.303980
M. Baran10
WSep 25 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.3681191182M. Baran2.90115117113WSep 25 · 02:45M. Baran2.1051111113G. Mucha1.65116571WSep 25 · 01:10M. Baran2.0011511113M. Lewczuk1.72711761WSep 25 · 00:20A. Staniczek2.00811761M. Baran1.7011911113LSep 24 · 23:05M. Baran1.8510660G. Mucha1.851211113LSep 24 · 21:30M. Baran1.691181112102D. Molenda2.06811714123WSep 24 · 20:20M. Baran1.57111110113A. Staniczek2.25491231LSep 24 · 18:45M. Baran2.25161151322Z. Nocun1.571881111113LSep 24 · 17:30M. Baran2.1079110M. Lewczuk1.601111133WSep 23 · 04:40K. Delikatny2.00781171M. Baran1.7111119113
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