TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148299
Played Sep 18Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11351110121113––
Ivan Fedoryshyn
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Fedoryshyn to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Ivan Fedoryshyn below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 76 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Ivan Fedoryshyn at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 2–2 Ivan Fedoryshyn Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fedoryshyn
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1873 vs Fedoryshyn 1799
Marushchak
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Fedoryshyn 20%
Marushchak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 80% vs Fedoryshyn 40%
Marushchak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +1 · Fedoryshyn -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fedoryshyn form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.83 / Fedoryshyn 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marushchak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13148299
Marushchak1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Fedoryshyn1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMarushchak2wins
AwayFedoryshyn2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak2Fedoryshyn2n = 4split evenly
S2Marushchak2Fedoryshyn2n = 4split evenly
S3Marushchak2Fedoryshyn2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMarushchakFedoryshynM − FBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match32.332.0+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakFedoryshynBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 651 vs 548 / 83149.9%65.9%325 / 651 vs 548 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.83/Fedoryshyn 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fedoryshyn won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 24 · 15:40V. Marushchak331111113I. Fedoryshyn156450
LJul 17 · 13:40V. Marushchak4111118382I. Fedoryshyn48961111113
LApr 27 · 17:40V. Marushchak239950I. Fedoryshyn331111113
V. Marushchak10
WSep 18 · 14:40V. Marushchak1.531211133A. Hrabskyi2.38105110LSep 18 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.67131161352A. Yurkov2.101591111113WSep 18 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Lievshin2.386590WSep 16 · 11:05V. Marushchak1.441111113O. Kolbasenko2.636750WSep 16 · 09:35V. Marushchak1.3311811113V. Mishchenko3.25311661WSep 16 · 08:05V. Marushchak1.91911116113O. Gavryshko1.8011671162LSep 16 · 06:35V. Marushchak1.5311591182A. Lievshin2.38911118113WSep 16 · 05:05V. Marushchak1.611116113A. Hrabskyi2.2091460WSep 15 · 18:00I. Hermakivskyi1.40941171V. Marushchak2.7511114113WSep 15 · 17:00V. Marushchak1.671111113A. Lievshin2.107790
I. Fedoryshyn10
WSep 18 · 17:40I. Fedoryshyn2.38118513113A. Lievshin1.53811111162LSep 18 · 12:40I. Fedoryshyn1.737111171A. Hrabskyi2.0011713113LSep 18 · 11:40A. Yurkov2.1018811113I. Fedoryshyn1.671611281WSep 17 · 17:00S. Chuhai2.63611951I. Fedoryshyn1.4411311113LSep 17 · 16:30A. Lushchyk2.63811711113I. Fedoryshyn1.4411911792LSep 17 · 15:00A. Kasyanov2.101111173I. Fedoryshyn1.6757150LSep 17 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn1.73116881A. Kasyanov2.0031111113WSep 17 · 13:00I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113A. Lushchyk2.639850LSep 17 · 12:00I. Fedoryshyn1.53117791S. Chuhai2.3881111113WSep 15 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.1016117113M. Baday1.671461181
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