TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Astana Quals
WTT Star Contender Astana QualsMatch #13141822
Played Sep 17Finished
Dmitrii Vinogradov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811114119––
Martin Allegro
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeDmitrii Vinogradov to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitrii Vinogradov above · Martin Allegro below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Dmitrii Vinogradov at 55.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Dmitrii Vinogradov 1–0 Martin Allegro Martin Allegro has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Allegro
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Vinogradov 60% vs Allegro 40%
Vinogradov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vinogradov 60% vs Allegro 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vinogradov +2 · Allegro -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vinogradov) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Allegro form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVinogradov 1.83 / Allegro 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vinogradov)+4.0pp
WTT Star Contender Astana Quals · #13141822
Vinogradov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Allegro1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest11%takes the first set · 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVinogradov1wins
AwayAllegro0wins
Vinogradov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVinogradovAllegroV − ABasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.030.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVinogradovAllegroBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 5 / 1060%50%6 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VinogradovVinogradov 1.83/Allegro 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vinogradov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vinogradov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 14:55D. Vinogradov4111811113M. Allegro30611491
D. Vinogradov10
WSep 16 · 14:35D. Vinogradov4.50134711113Y. Kizukuri1.17111111982WSep 16 · 06:35D. Vinogradov1.051111113M. Kurbantayev8.507130LSep 2 · 12:10K. Skachkov2.3811115113D. Vinogradov1.53721181WSep 2 · 06:10Z. Kenjaev7.508760D. Vinogradov1.071111113LJul 27 · 08:20F. Bourrassaud1.441371111113D. Vinogradov2.6315118552WJul 26 · 07:55D. Vinogradov1.131111113N. Shutov5.506830LJul 2 · 14:50D. Vinogradov—821191L. Volin—11116113WJul 2 · 09:10D. Vinogradov—911711113T. Monteiro—11611562WJul 1 · 14:15D. Vinogradov—1111113Z. Aldmaisy—3690LMay 12 · 16:20F. Zeljko1.531211113D. Vinogradov2.3810970
M. Allegro10
LAug 9 · 09:45M. Allegro1.96129111682C. Nuytinck1.701411814113LAug 9 · 08:35M. Allegro2.25129111682C. Nuytinck1.571411814113LJun 28 · 02:15V. Ursu1.571111113M. Allegro2.255880WJun 27 · 18:10M. Allegro5.00511913113G. Park1.14119111182WJun 26 · 20:45R. Castro3.401181191M. Allegro1.3013118113LJun 10 · 10:20G. Kuo1.3512114113M. Allegro2.701031171WJun 10 · 05:55F. Vallino5.80139891M. Allegro1.09111111113WJun 9 · 18:15F. Vallino4.50139891M. Allegro1.17111111113LJun 2 · 16:45D. Kozul1.821111113M. Allegro1.825540WJun 2 · 09:35M. Allegro1.2011116113A. Doyen4.33841141
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