TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Astana Quals
WTT Star Contender Astana QualsMatch #13141797
Played Sep 17Finished
Kay Stumper
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711811118119117
Yuta Tanaka
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKay Stumper to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKay Stumper above · Yuta Tanaka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Kay Stumper at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Kay Stumper 1–0 Yuta Tanaka Yuta Tanaka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:26What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Tanaka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Stumper 80% vs Tanaka 60%
Stumper
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stumper 60% vs Tanaka 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stumper +2 · Tanaka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Tanaka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tanaka form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStumper 2.75 / Tanaka 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Tanaka)+0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Astana Quals · #13141797
Stumper2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Tanaka1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStumper1wins
AwayTanaka0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderStumper leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStumperTanakaS − TBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.046.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStumperTanakaBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 7 / 1060%70%6 / 10 vs 7 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.62.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TanakaStumper 2.75/Tanaka 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Tanaka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stumper won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 08:20K. Stumper48781111113Y. Tanaka4611118972
K. Stumper10
WSep 16 · 13:15K. Stumper2.631111133M. Oikawa1.4424110WSep 15 · 12:35K. Stumper1.061111113V. Zakharov8.003470LSep 9 · 08:40K. Stumper1.5081351192B. Haug2.501111116113WSep 8 · 14:45K. Stumper1.07118911113L. Benko7.5081111182WSep 8 · 14:15K. Stumper1.05118911113L. Benko6.3081111182LJul 24 · 22:55K. Stumper6.5011541172S. Togami1.10411112113WJul 23 · 21:10H. Yamane8.5011115632K. Stumper1.05571111113LJul 5 · 10:20K. Yoshiyama1.82115126113K. Stumper1.82811101152LJul 4 · 10:55K. Yoshiyama2.10115126113K. Stumper1.67811101152WJul 3 · 16:25K. Stumper1.6191111113P. Jain2.20118441
Y. Tanaka10
LSep 4 · 12:45Y. Tanaka2.2511115872S. Gauzy1.57781111113WSep 3 · 05:00Y. Tanaka1.441113113K. Yoshiyama2.6351190LAug 8 · 03:50Y. Tanaka1.4411142592R. Yoshiyama2.638121111113WAug 7 · 11:10H. Hsu2.61761181Y. Tanaka1.4111116113WAug 7 · 06:55D. Kim4.337750Y. Tanaka1.201111113WAug 6 · 11:50F. Meng3.2774100Y. Tanaka1.271111113WAug 6 · 03:00F. Meng4.0074100Y. Tanaka1.221111123LJul 24 · 21:10Y. Uda1.53119813113Y. Tanaka2.38911111152WJul 23 · 22:20Y. Tanaka1.101112113G. Gomez6.5061050WJul 23 · 07:00Y. Tanaka1.101112113G. Gomez6.5061050
Upcoming Matches
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