TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Astana Quals
WTT Star Contender Astana QualsMatch #13141767
Played Sep 17Finished
Ryuusei Kawakami
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119511611116119
Andre Bertelsmeier
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeRyuusei Kawakami to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRyuusei Kawakami above · Andre Bertelsmeier below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ryuusei Kawakami at 55.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ryuusei Kawakami 1–0 Andre Bertelsmeier Andre Bertelsmeier has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bertelsmeier
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Kawakami 80% vs Bertelsmeier 60%
Kawakami
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kawakami 80% vs Bertelsmeier 60%
Kawakami
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kawakami +2 · Bertelsmeier -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kawakami) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kawakami form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKawakami 1.83 / Bertelsmeier 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kawakami)+4.0pp
WTT Star Contender Astana Quals · #13141767
Kawakami1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Bertelsmeier1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKawakami1wins
AwayBertelsmeier0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKawakami leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKawakamiBertelsmeierK − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.046.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKawakamiBertelsmeierBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 10 vs 6 / 1080%60%8 / 10 vs 6 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.72.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KawakamiKawakami 1.83/Bertelsmeier 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kawakami · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kawakami won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 13:10R. Kawakami44115611113A. Bertelsmeier4691111692
R. Kawakami10
WSep 16 · 12:35R. Kawakami1.531112611113H. Kobayashi2.3831411832WSep 15 · 13:45R. Kawakami1.2551311113H. Yu3.751111571LSep 12 · 09:15R. Kawakami2.50111421182D. Ovtcharov1.50616118113WSep 11 · 15:35R. Brard6.001111122112R. Kawakami1.11761411133WSep 10 · 16:15R. Kawakami1.531112119123M. Freitas2.38514411102WSep 9 · 16:40R. Kawakami1.131112113B. Haug5.5081060WSep 9 · 07:25R. Kawakami1.131111113A. Puppo5.505860WSep 8 · 13:00R. Kawakami1.361111113B. Fruchart3.005350WSep 8 · 11:15R. Kawakami1.271111113B. Fruchart3.355350LAug 23 · 16:15H. Kwon2.2011611113R. Kawakami1.61211981
A. Bertelsmeier10
LSep 12 · 08:25C. Nuytinck2.751181111113A. Bertelsmeier1.4041171362WSep 11 · 14:25A. Bertelsmeier2.3811511113R. Yoshiyama1.53711781WSep 10 · 03:00A. Bertelsmeier1.50116811113L. Nodrest2.5081111442LJul 24 · 21:10H. Calderano1.171111113A. Bertelsmeier4.507850WJul 23 · 15:30A. Bertelsmeier—11511113A. Fuentes—311661LJul 1 · 20:45A. Bertelsmeier4.501211116102T. Moregard1.171013511123WJun 29 · 20:10J. An1.33118891A. Bertelsmeier3.2571111113WJun 28 · 01:40A. Bertelsmeier1.831111143A. Gacina1.8397120WJun 27 · 02:50A. Bertelsmeier1.82812119113M. Karlsson1.82111081172LJun 10 · 10:55Y. Chang1.70119126113A. Bertelsmeier1.91511101162
Upcoming Matches
R. Kawakami
A. Bertelsmeier
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