TT Lossbeater/WTT Contender Panagyurishte
WTT Contender PanagyurishteMatch #13104328
Played Sep 9Finished
Esteban Dorr
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1158111166111012
Alex Naumi
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlex Naumi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEsteban Dorr above · Alex Naumi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-11
Point 90 set 5, 10-11 — our read held Alex Naumi at 54.0%
90 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Esteban Dorr 0–1 Alex Naumi Esteban Dorr has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:40What took a side1 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Dorr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Dorr 60% vs Naumi 80%
Naumi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dorr 70% vs Naumi 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dorr +3 · Naumi +2
Dorr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Dorr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naumi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDorr 1.28 / Naumi 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Dorr)-0.0pp
WTT Contender Panagyurishte · #13104328
Dorr1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Naumi3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDorr0wins
AwayNaumi1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNaumi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDorrNaumiD − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.045.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDorrNaumiBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 10 vs 7 / 1070%70%7 / 10 vs 7 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.52.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DorrDorr 1.28/Naumi 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.1%
Dorr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Naumi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 9 · 17:20E. Dorr46118116102A. Naumi45511611123
E. Dorr10
WSep 9 · 08:15E. Dorr1.17111111113A. Alkhadrawi4.50913961WSep 8 · 14:10E. Dorr1.44111199123F. Kojic2.63491111102WSep 8 · 13:50E. Dorr1.45111199123F. Kojic2.55491111102LSep 3 · 05:00E. Dorr2.38111291032K. Hamada1.536101112113LAug 7 · 06:55J. Yokotani1.44111011113E. Dorr2.63912861WAug 6 · 05:20E. Dorr1.559101111113S. Suravajjula2.2311127692WAug 6 · 03:00E. Dorr1.309101111113S. Suravajjula3.4011127692LJul 28 · 13:15E. Tikhonov1.6112711123E. Dorr2.2010116101WJul 28 · 06:10E. Dorr2.631111810113R. Kawakami1.4478111242WJul 27 · 14:00E. Dorr1.851112113L. Katsman1.8561070
A. Naumi10
LSep 10 · 17:20A. Naumi6.502230K. Karlsson1.101111113WSep 8 · 14:45G. Gomez1.40118811102A. Naumi2.75611118123WSep 8 · 10:30A. Shulaybi4.337151121A. Naumi1.2011175113LAug 26 · 10:20A. Naumi2.2541111792M. Antoine-Michard1.57118611113WAug 25 · 09:10D. Floro3.406560A. Naumi1.301111113WAug 24 · 10:55A. Naumi1.171111113J. Kabelka4.506360LAug 20 · 15:40Z. Chew2.20111112113A. Naumi1.611361061WAug 20 · 08:35T. Watanabe2.105690A. Naumi1.671111113WAug 19 · 09:10A. Naumi1.401511113Y. Yu2.7513430LJan 27 · 17:45M. Pantoja—11119113A. Naumi—791171
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