TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12408537
Played Aug 13Finished
Joao Geraldo
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412811911511––
Thibault Poret
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:04 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJoao Geraldo to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJoao Geraldo above · Thibault Poret below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 81 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Joao Geraldo at 56.4%
81 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Poret
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Geraldo 60% vs Poret 40%
Geraldo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Geraldo 70% vs Poret 50%
Geraldo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Geraldo +1 · Poret +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Poret) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poret form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGeraldo 2.00 / Poret 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Poret)+0.3pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12408537
Geraldo2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Poret1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricGeraldoPoretBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 10 vs 5 / 1070%50%7 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoretGeraldo 2.00/Poret 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Poret · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Poret won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Geraldo10
WAug 11 · 11:45F. Luu6.509780J. Geraldo1.101111113LAug 6 · 05:00J. Geraldo3.751162101H. Shinozuka1.2591111123WAug 4 · 02:00R. Wen1.11811881J. Geraldo6.0011711113LJul 2 · 19:35F. Lebrun1.081111113J. Geraldo7.007880WJul 1 · 02:45J. Geraldo4.3312116113D. Jorgic1.201091181WJun 29 · 01:00J. Geraldo2.009111011123I. Chirita1.73119124102LMay 23 · 10:45A. Lind1.3381113113J. Geraldo3.251151171WMay 22 · 10:10A. Salifou4.509720J. Geraldo1.171111113WMay 21 · 17:20P. Jain—12890J. Geraldo—1411113WMay 21 · 08:00P. Jain3.5012890J. Geraldo1.281411113
T. Poret10
LAug 14 · 18:05F. Lebrun1.171111103T. Poret4.502440WAug 11 · 11:10T. Poret3.25821111113P. Franziska1.3311118592LJul 25 · 14:35P. Franziska1.3381211113T. Poret3.251110791WJul 24 · 16:20W. Verdonschot2.3811651172T. Poret1.53411118113LJun 30 · 02:10B. Duda1.531111113T. Poret2.387630LJun 20 · 01:20S. Gauzy—1111113T. Poret—9980LJun 19 · 15:00S. Gauzy1.831111113T. Poret1.839980WJun 18 · 10:45A. Gacina2.231212681T. Poret1.55141011113WJun 18 · 04:00A. Gacina2.251212681T. Poret1.57141011113LMay 23 · 09:35M. Shah2.501141111113T. Poret1.5081131342
Upcoming Matches
J. Geraldo
T. Poret
Nothing scheduled
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