TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women Quals
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women QualsMatch #12388760
Played Aug 9Finished
Xia Lian Ni
Home
1.71
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711611511––
Yu-Han Peng
Away
1.98
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeYu-Han Peng to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingXia Lian Ni above · Yu-Han Peng below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Yu-Han Peng at 56.4%
71 points played in total.
H2H Xia Lian Ni 0–1 Yu-Han Peng Xia Lian Ni has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Ni
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Ni 60% vs Peng 80%
Peng
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ni 50% vs Peng 70%
Peng
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ni +3 · Peng +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ni) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Peng form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNi 1.71 / Peng 1.98
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ni)+0.3pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women Quals · #12388760
Ni1.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Peng1.98
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNi0wins
AwayPeng1wins
Peng leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNiPengN − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match29.042.0−13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiPengBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 7 / 1050%70%5 / 10 vs 7 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiNi 1.71/Peng 1.98
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ni · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Peng won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 9 · 16:10X. Ni—117651Y. Peng—91111113
X. Ni10
LSep 3 · 13:55X. Ni2.1096150H. Yang1.671111173WSep 2 · 11:35X. Ni1.05111197113S. Kodirova8.5054111192WAug 9 · 10:55J. Shao1.835550X. Ni1.831111113WAug 9 · 08:35J. Shao1.835550X. Ni1.831111113WAug 8 · 08:45X. Ni1.2081111113Z. Akasheva4.33118681LJun 16 · 08:00S. Das2.251110513123X. Ni1.574121111102LJun 9 · 18:50X. Ni6.501081131S. Shibata1.1012117113WJun 9 · 10:35L. Benko—118501X. Ni—91111113LJun 3 · 14:35X. Ni1.30814119132C. Lutz3.401112711153LJun 2 · 17:20M. Takeya1.8311911113X. Ni1.83611971
Y. Peng10
LAug 15 · 10:00M. Wang1.0412111115114Y. Peng9.0014461361WAug 14 · 16:35Y. Peng3.5091111103M. Nagasaki1.28118961WAug 13 · 16:35H. Hashimoto1.06951191Y. Peng8.0011118113WAug 11 · 10:35P. Pavade1.44812119142Y. Peng2.631110411163WAug 9 · 11:30L. Rakovac3.49810111162Y. Peng1.24111274113WAug 9 · 09:10L. Rakovac3.75810111162Y. Peng1.25111274113WAug 8 · 09:20A. Svensson8.505350Y. Peng1.051111113LJun 28 · 20:10Y. Peng2.50118100A. Hursey1.501311123WJun 28 · 03:35T. Chien1.61111291062Y. Peng2.207101112113WJun 27 · 18:45F. Bergand3.70111461192Y. Peng1.251312119113
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