TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden Quals
WTT Europe Smash Sweden QualsMatch #12384530
Played Aug 9Finished
Cheng-Jui Kao
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117118511911111
Marek Badowski
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeCheng-Jui Kao to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingCheng-Jui Kao above · Marek Badowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 85 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Cheng-Jui Kao at 76.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Cheng-Jui Kao 1–0 Marek Badowski Marek Badowski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:43What took a side1 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kao
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Kao 60% vs Badowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kao 50% vs Badowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kao +1 · Badowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kao) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKao 1.28 / Badowski 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kao)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Quals · #12384530
Kao1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Badowski3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKao1wins
AwayBadowski0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKao leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKaoBadowskiK − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match47.038.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaoBadowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 6 / 1050%60%5 / 10 vs 6 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaoKao 1.28/Badowski 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Kao · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kao won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 9 · 10:20C. Kao—111159113M. Badowski—78111112
C. Kao10
LAug 9 · 19:40C. Kao1.50111071192A. Robles2.40712117113LAug 9 · 17:20C. Kao1.28111071192A. Robles3.50712117113WAug 9 · 15:35C. Kao1.26111159113M. Badowski3.5078111112WAug 8 · 13:35C. Kao1.08121183M. Friis7.0010890LJun 28 · 19:00F. Lebrun1.251112113C. Kao3.7591060WJun 28 · 02:50C. Kao2.639111213113F. Xue1.44114101572WJun 27 · 18:45C. Kao1.1311115113L. Iizuka5.50861191LSep 29 · 10:55T. Moregard1.4011411113C. Kao2.75311651LSep 9 · 07:10S. Lin1.061111113C. Kao8.005440LAug 18 · 11:45D. Cho1.8311116113C. Kao1.83741191
M. Badowski10
LAug 23 · 09:10H. Kwon1.85137118133M. Badowski1.851111811112WAug 22 · 16:50C. Nuytinck2.006570M. Badowski1.731111113WAug 22 · 11:55N. Naresh6.50113971M. Badowski1.1081111113WAug 21 · 10:55B. Botha8.505850M. Badowski1.051111113LAug 9 · 15:35C. Kao1.26111159113M. Badowski3.5078111112WAug 8 · 13:35N. Alamiyan1.8311116772M. Badowski1.83781111113LJun 10 · 17:00M. Badowski2.3811914101K. Hamada1.5371116123WJun 10 · 11:30P. Gionis1.576330M. Badowski2.251111113WJun 9 · 15:20M. Badowski1.83711613163I. Quek1.831151111142LMay 16 · 10:53P. Franziska1.131111113M. Badowski5.508570
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.