TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Hons vs Petr Zivny 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Aug 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
181612109119111311
Petr Zivny
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Petr Zivny below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 120 set 5, 13-11
120 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 1–4 Petr Zivny David Hons has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zivny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zivny form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 2.10 / Zivny 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Zivny)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12352067
Hons2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 62 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back17% 11 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Zivny1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHons1wins
AwayZivny4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZivny leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHonsn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayZivny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons1Zivny4n = 5Zivny took 4 of 5
S2Hons2Zivny3n = 5Zivny took 3 of 5
S3Hons2Zivny3n = 5Zivny took 3 of 5
S4Hons0Zivny2n = 3Zivny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricHonsZivnyH − ZBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match33.638.2−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsZivnyBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 429 vs 17 / 3149.9%54.8%214 / 429 vs 17 / 31Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZivnyHons 2.10/Zivny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.8%
Zivny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 2 · 14:05D. Hons4071211102P. Zivny3611105101
LJun 7 · 07:35D. Hons34119681P. Zivny3851111113
LMay 24 · 21:40D. Hons2585120P. Zivny361111143
LMay 24 · 19:05D. Hons218760P. Zivny331111113
LMar 22 · 19:35D. Hons48911111072P. Zivny48117712113
D. Hons10
WSep 27 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.611169101D. Hons2.2051111123WSep 27 · 14:35P. Zivny1.673940D. Hons2.101111113LSep 26 · 21:38K. Lahodny1.8013119113D. Hons1.911151161LSep 26 · 20:05D. Hons2.0011116352K. Lahodny1.73991111113WSep 26 · 19:05D. Hons1.80711116113J. Martin1.9111771182WSep 26 · 18:05D. Hons1.5711811113L. Vana2.25511871LSep 26 · 09:19D. Hons1.506940R. Vavricka2.501111113LSep 26 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.571111113D. Hons2.258560WSep 26 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.5061111832D. Hons1.50116611113LSep 26 · 06:35D. Hons2.208139101J. Lovl1.61111111123
P. Zivny10
WSep 27 · 16:05R. Fnukal2.106870P. Zivny1.671111113WSep 27 · 15:35T. Palan2.001311111142P. Zivny1.73159133113LSep 27 · 14:35P. Zivny1.673940D. Hons2.101111113LAug 2 · 16:05P. Zivny2.255990J. Lovl1.571111113LAug 2 · 15:05P. Zivny1.6191111782R. Fnukal2.20116711113LAug 2 · 14:05P. Zivny1.4411105101D. Hons2.6371211123LJun 28 · 13:05P. Zivny—711881J. Lovl—11511113LJun 28 · 12:05P. Zivny—95111192R. Fnukal—111178113WJun 28 · 11:05P. Zivny—1111911113R. Pokorny—55111392LJun 28 · 10:05P. Zivny—11710121J. Lovl—81112143
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