TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Kadavy vs Tomas Vorisek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210114––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:53 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 57 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Tomas Vorisek at 56.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 21–31 Tomas Vorisek Ondrej Kadavy has won 21 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5356.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vorisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-31 in 52
Vorisek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1776 vs Vorisek 1710
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 60% vs Vorisek 40%
Kadavy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Vorisek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +1 · Vorisek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vorisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 2.10 / Vorisek 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vorisek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277167
Kadavy2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back19% 5 of 27
Vorisek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 100 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy4wins
AwayVorisek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVorisek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy66.7%4 of 6
AwayVorisek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy6Vorisek4n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S2Kadavy3Vorisek7n = 10Vorisek took 7 of 10
S3Kadavy6Vorisek4n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S4Kadavy2Vorisek5n = 7Vorisek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyVorisekK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.20.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 348 vs 406 / 80258.1%50.6%202 / 348 vs 406 / 802Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekKadavy 2.10/Vorisek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 07:55O. Kadavy341112113T. Vorisek2391040
LSep 21 · 20:25O. Kadavy37128891T. Vorisek43101111113
WSep 15 · 20:25O. Kadavy521110137113T. Vorisek46412111182
WSep 11 · 19:25O. Kadavy4011711113T. Vorisek32711861
LAug 21 · 22:58O. Kadavy45108111152T. Vorisek48121186113
LAug 21 · 19:55O. Kadavy398516101T. Vorisek48111114123
WAug 19 · 16:25O. Kadavy341111123T. Vorisek2248100
LAug 17 · 19:55O. Kadavy31115871T. Vorisek3961111113
LAug 16 · 09:54O. Kadavy371011971T. Vorisek3812411113
LAug 16 · 08:25O. Kadavy237970T. Vorisek331111113
O. Kadavy10
LOct 11 · 08:55O. Kadavy1.91471171V. Benak1.8011118113WOct 11 · 06:55O. Kadavy1.731311123F. Strejc2.00118100LOct 9 · 17:59O. Kadavy1.9181171182F. Cernota1.80116117113WOct 9 · 16:55O. Kadavy2.00891111113M. Stusek1.7311118512LOct 9 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.83981181F. Cernota1.8311118113WOct 6 · 22:35O. Kadavy1.73111113113D. Bochnak2.00961571LOct 6 · 21:25M. Cerny3.0011711113O. Kadavy1.36711881WOct 6 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.73101111113D. Bochnak2.00126791WOct 6 · 18:55P. Vanek2.385770O. Kadavy1.531111113WOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113
T. Vorisek10
LOct 11 · 09:25T. Vorisek1.447840F. Strejc2.631111113LOct 11 · 07:25V. Benak1.91911812123T. Vorisek1.801111110102LOct 10 · 10:35T. Vorisek1.534880F. Strejc2.381111113WOct 10 · 09:25D. Jicha1.73711611112T. Vorisek2.00118113133WOct 10 · 08:25T. Vorisek1.44911111113F. Strejc2.6311981162LOct 10 · 06:55V. Benak1.911111113T. Vorisek1.809870WOct 9 · 21:53J. Zlamal1.578790T. Vorisek2.251111113LOct 9 · 20:20F. Strejc2.2551111133T. Vorisek1.571157111WOct 9 · 19:50D. Jicha1.731157101T. Vorisek2.0091111123LOct 9 · 18:50T. Vorisek2.3851111552J. Zlamal1.53119811113
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