TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Oracz vs Grzegorz Mucha 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesBLW · Blachownia
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113911119711113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched: 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
113911119711113
H2H Jacek Oracz 17–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Mucha 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3376.3%Our read75.2%to break even at 1.33
clears by 1.1pp75.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.33 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (70%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-2 in 19
Oracz
Correct
gap of 15 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1545 vs Mucha 1427
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Mucha 60%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Mucha +3
Mucha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.33 / Mucha 3.10
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Oracz)+1.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13276769
Oracz1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 312 of 438
Up 2–0, closes it99% 193 of 196
Up 1–0, closes it87% 255 of 293
Mucha3.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 61 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz8wins
AwayMucha2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%6 of 6
AwayMucha50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Mucha4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz10Mucha0n = 10Oracz took 10 of 10
S3Oracz6Mucha4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz3Mucha2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S5Oracz2Mucha1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczMuchaO − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.833.4+6.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime660 / 910 vs 194 / 38572.5%50.4%660 / 910 vs 194 / 385Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.33/Mucha 3.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.3%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 15:35J. Oracz511011811113G. Mucha4112811552
WSep 27 · 02:20J. Oracz551111107163G. Mucha53971211142
WSep 26 · 20:20J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha229670
WSep 20 · 02:35J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha198470
WSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz361411113G. Mucha2612680
LAug 30 · 02:35J. Oracz33612871G. Mucha43111011113
WAug 29 · 15:25J. Oracz45121111113G. Mucha35148941
WAug 22 · 22:50J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha218490
WAug 22 · 15:10J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha207670
LAug 16 · 23:20J. Oracz4641281392G. Mucha5411101111113
J. Oracz10
WOct 10 · 20:00J. Oracz1.321113113M. Karpiuk3.0041180WOct 10 · 18:45J. Oracz1.241111113J. Skorupa3.287780LOct 10 · 17:35J. Oracz1.49119571O. Jedrzejowski2.4781111113WOct 10 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.00119971J. Oracz1.7191111113WOct 10 · 15:35J. Oracz1.401011811113G. Mucha2.7512811552WOct 10 · 02:00J. Oracz1.77111111113C. Pawlik1.93713691WOct 10 · 00:45J. Oracz1.3291111113J. Skorupa3.00117761LOct 9 · 23:35J. Oracz1.551110971O. Jedrzejowski2.2571211113LOct 9 · 22:25M. Krutak2.301011118123J. Oracz1.52125411102LOct 9 · 21:35J. Oracz1.6111811992K. Malcher2.19511911113
G. Mucha10
WOct 10 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.50122111152G. Mucha2.351011713113WOct 10 · 19:35G. Mucha2.201211113O. Jedrzejowski1.5710350WOct 10 · 18:25M. Karpiuk1.9096111192G. Mucha1.75111178113LOct 10 · 17:10J. Skorupa1.90121178113G. Mucha1.75105111172LOct 10 · 15:35J. Oracz1.401011811113G. Mucha2.7512811552WOct 5 · 02:10G. Mucha1.301116113A. Szurgot3.4081490LOct 5 · 00:35Z. Nocun1.5371111113G. Mucha2.38116981LOct 4 · 23:45J. Michalik2.00111346113G. Mucha1.73611111192LOct 4 · 22:55G. Mucha1.40131211782A. Staniczek2.751510511113WOct 4 · 21:45G. Mucha1.671111811113K. Kwiatkowski2.1044111372
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.