TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Dawid Kotwica 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181197111012115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:26 and never touched: 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeMilosz Kukawka to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1181197111012115
H2H Milosz Kukawka 4–0 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2662.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Kukawka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Kukawka
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1430 vs Kotwica 1307
Kukawka
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 60% vs Kotwica 40%
Kukawka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 60% vs Kotwica 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka -2 · Kotwica -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kukawka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 1.50 / Kotwica 2.40
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kukawka)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275367
Kukawka1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 228 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it98% 119 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it84% 188 of 224
Kotwica2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 123 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back19% 39 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKukawka4wins
AwayKotwica0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKukawka leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKukawka100%4 of 4
AwayKotwican = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kukawka4Kotwica0n = 4Kukawka took 4 of 4
S2Kukawka2Kotwica2n = 4split evenly
S3Kukawka3Kotwica1n = 4Kukawka took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKukawkaKotwicaKukawka − KotwicaBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match39.831.8+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime531 / 860 vs 612 / 150661.7%40.6%531 / 860 vs 612 / 1506Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KukawkaKukawka 1.50/Kotwica 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.3%
Kukawka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kukawka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 14 · 20:10M. Kukawka371411123D. Kotwica29127100
WMay 18 · 17:05M. Kukawka3911611113D. Kotwica30611761
WMay 3 · 20:10M. Kukawka481141111113D. Kotwica4791113772
WMar 16 · 20:05M. Kukawka351311113D. Kotwica2111550
M. Kukawka10
LOct 10 · 15:50T. Filbrandt1.36116611113M. Kukawka2.9061111692LOct 10 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn2.1011611113M. Kukawka1.66411781WOct 10 · 13:30M. Kukawka1.401113113A. Szoltysek2.7521150WOct 10 · 12:15J. Przewlocki3.0061115752M. Kukawka1.351181311113WOct 10 · 11:00I. Dabrowski2.10119431M. Kukawka1.6691111113WOct 10 · 09:25J. Rolak2.05118651M. Kukawka1.6571111113WOct 9 · 14:20M. Kukawka2.2511511113B. Sulkowski1.55611761LOct 9 · 12:40B. Czerwinski1.55111112113M. Kukawka2.30291461WOct 9 · 11:50F. Krcil2.2091070M. Kukawka1.601112113LOct 9 · 11:00M. Kukawka2.3071160T. Filbrandt1.551113113
D. Kotwica10
LOct 10 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.251111113D. Kotwica3.506780WOct 1 · 00:35J. Lamperski1.58911581D. Kotwica2.2511411113LSep 30 · 22:55D. Poloszczanski1.801111108113D. Kotwica1.9189121192LSep 30 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.0571114143D. Kotwica1.7011812121WSep 30 · 21:30K. Klocek1.788350D. Kotwica1.931111113LSep 30 · 20:05D. Kotwica2.0561090D. Poloszczanski1.701112113LSep 30 · 18:30J. Lamperski1.551111113D. Kotwica2.309840WSep 30 · 17:45K. Klocek1.856450D. Kotwica1.801111113WSep 30 · 16:55D. Kotwica1.738121110113M. Kowalczyk1.98111061292WSep 30 · 15:50D. Kotwica2.031191112113P. Strus1.71131141082
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