TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Dohnal vs Zdenek Muhlhauser 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
81111715131412––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Muhlhauser to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Zdenek Muhlhauser below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 91 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Zdenek Muhlhauser at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 6–9 Zdenek Muhlhauser Jaroslav Dohnal has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1554.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Muhlhauser
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Muhlhauser
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1507 vs Muhlhauser 1502
Dohnal
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 60% vs Muhlhauser 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 60% vs Muhlhauser 40%
Dohnal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -1 · Muhlhauser +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Muhlhauser) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 2.10 / Muhlhauser 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Muhlhauser)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13272127
Dohnal2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 15 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Muhlhauser1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 05)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 28 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal2wins
AwayMuhlhauser8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMuhlhauser leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal33.3%1 of 3
AwayMuhlhauser85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal3Muhlhauser7n = 10Muhlhauser took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal7Muhlhauser3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S3Dohnal2Muhlhauser8n = 10Muhlhauser took 8 of 10
S4Dohnal3Muhlhauser5n = 8Muhlhauser took 5 of 8
S5Dohnal1Muhlhauser4n = 5Muhlhauser took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalMuhlhauserD − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.6−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalMuhlhauserBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 664 vs 67 / 13558.4%49.6%388 / 664 vs 67 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuhlhauserDohnal 2.10/Muhlhauser 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Muhlhauser · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 20:55J. Dohnal2691070Z. Muhlhauser341112113
LAug 15 · 12:55J. Dohnal3811114842Z. Muhlhauser45661111113
LMay 29 · 21:25J. Dohnal51131111882Z. Muhlhauser51158611113
LMay 16 · 12:25J. Dohnal4191151152Z. Muhlhauser48119116113
WApr 26 · 08:25J. Dohnal44111210113Z. Muhlhauser409101291
LApr 19 · 14:31J. Dohnal501111101082Z. Muhlhauser50961212113
LApr 19 · 12:55J. Dohnal31811391Z. Muhlhauser4011711113
LApr 6 · 11:55J. Dohnal33611791Z. Muhlhauser3811511113
LMar 28 · 13:55J. Dohnal2781090Z. Muhlhauser341112113
WFeb 22 · 14:25J. Dohnal559101111143Z. Muhlhauser46111247122
J. Dohnal10
WOct 10 · 12:55S. Holik1.8311101181J. Dohnal1.8371213113LOct 10 · 12:25J. Sebl2.251191311113J. Dohnal1.57911111392LOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123WOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143LOct 5 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.57611981J. Cousin2.2511711113WOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113WOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:20T. Rein2.5091161172J. Dohnal1.50116118113LOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:50J. Dohnal1.573111118113J. Cousin2.25111391692
Z. Muhlhauser10
WOct 10 · 11:55S. Holik1.9167141192Z. Muhlhauser1.801111125113WOct 5 · 17:59Z. Muhlhauser1.50129911113P. Kubat2.50101111252WOct 5 · 16:55P. Kubat2.38118861Z. Muhlhauser1.5361111113LOct 5 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.9111149113Z. Muhlhauser1.807121151LOct 5 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser1.67111111482P. Vodal2.10136211113WSep 28 · 09:55A. Brandtl Jr1.616121151Z. Muhlhauser2.2011146113LSep 28 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.839450A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113LSep 28 · 07:55T. Cerveny Jr1.83911612113Z. Muhlhauser1.83119111062LSep 28 · 07:25L. Rek1.4411116113Z. Muhlhauser2.63541131WSep 26 · 10:00Z. Muhlhauser1.5310111110113P. Kubat2.3812891222
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