TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Fastov vs Denis Aldayev 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181412118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:52 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeAndrii Fastov to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Fastov above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 64 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Andrii Fastov at 79.4%
64 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Fastov 16–5 Denis Aldayev Denis Aldayev has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5279.4%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 0.6pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Fastov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Fastov
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fastov 1219 vs Aldayev 968
Fastov
Correct
both rated, 251 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fastov 60% vs Aldayev 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fastov 70% vs Aldayev 50%
Fastov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fastov +3 · Aldayev +1
Fastov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Fastov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFastov 1.25 / Aldayev 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Fastov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13270599
Fastov1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite76% won 69 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Aldayev3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFastov9wins
AwayAldayev1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFastov leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFastov100%6 of 6
AwayAldayev25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fastov6Aldayev4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10
S2Fastov7Aldayev3n = 10Fastov took 7 of 10
S3Fastov9Aldayev1n = 10Fastov took 9 of 10
S4Fastov4Aldayev3n = 7Fastov took 4 of 7
S5Fastov3Aldayev1n = 4Fastov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFastovAldayevF − ABasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.035.0+7.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFastovAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 237 vs 111 / 26753.2%41.6%126 / 237 vs 111 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FastovFastov 1.25/Aldayev 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Fastov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fastov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 05:00A. Fastov4551113882D. Aldayev531191111113
WSep 28 · 15:30A. Fastov4071111113D. Aldayev33119671
WSep 26 · 06:30A. Fastov46115117123D. Aldayev47811711102
WAug 15 · 10:00A. Fastov48117118113D. Aldayev3851121192
WJul 18 · 05:00A. Fastov331111113D. Aldayev249780
WJul 11 · 09:30A. Fastov51991111113D. Aldayev4211116772
WJul 4 · 05:30A. Fastov331111113D. Aldayev215970
WJul 1 · 12:00A. Fastov48121213113D. Aldayev3914101141
WJun 27 · 11:00A. Fastov4311138113D. Aldayev366111181
WApr 25 · 06:00A. Fastov331111113D. Aldayev176470
A. Fastov10
WOct 3 · 11:30V. Klymenko4.009790A. Fastov1.221111113WOct 3 · 10:00A. Fastov1.83141111113R. Boklah1.83167961WOct 3 · 08:00V. Ivnytskyi5.007911101A. Fastov1.1411118123LOct 3 · 06:00O. Kolos2.1011115113A. Fastov1.67781151LOct 3 · 05:00D. Aldayev4.331191111113A. Fastov1.2051113882WSep 28 · 17:34A. Fastov1.835111012113R. Boklah1.83116121092WSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev4.00119671A. Fastov1.2271111113WSep 28 · 14:30A. Fastov1.73811611113O. Kolos2.0011311982WSep 28 · 13:30R. Boklah1.67411681A. Fastov2.1011911113LSep 28 · 12:30A. Fastov1.14311811102V. Klymenko5.00116117123
D. Aldayev10
WOct 10 · 06:00R. Boklah1.2851171152D. Aldayev3.50115117113WOct 7 · 17:44V. Ivnytskyi1.50461121D. Aldayev2.5011119113LOct 7 · 16:30D. Aldayev2.63111181192V. Ivnytskyi1.44913118113WOct 7 · 15:30D. Aldayev2.00113911113V. Klymenko1.7381111782WOct 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev3.407111511113O. Kolos1.3011917852LOct 7 · 13:00D. Aldayev4.0011881162R. Boklah1.22911117113WOct 5 · 17:18D. Aldayev2.50111110113V. Klymenko1.50971271LOct 5 · 16:00D. Aldayev3.4011921192O. Kolos1.30911118113WOct 3 · 05:00D. Aldayev4.331191111113A. Fastov1.2051113882LSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev4.00119671A. Fastov1.2271111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.