TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Danylov vs Ihor Sorochan 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111871111597
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:17 and never touched: 79.1% is still 79.1%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
79.1%
79.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Danylov above · Ihor Sorochan below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-7
Point 84 set 5, 9-7 · our read held Ihor Sorochan at 79.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Anton Danylov 1–3 Ihor Sorochan Anton Danylov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1779.1%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 4.2pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Sorochan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Sorochan
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danylov 1112 vs Sorochan 1280
Sorochan
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danylov 80% vs Sorochan 40%
Danylov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danylov 60% vs Sorochan 30%
Danylov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danylov +2 · Sorochan +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Sorochan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sorochan form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanylov 4.333 / Sorochan 1.20
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Sorochan)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270255
Danylov4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 28 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Sorochan1.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 58 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 48 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDanylov1wins
AwaySorochan3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSorochan leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danylov2Sorochan2n = 4split evenly
S2Danylov2Sorochan2n = 4split evenly
S3Danylov1Sorochan3n = 4Sorochan took 3 of 4
S4Danylov1Sorochan2n = 3Sorochan took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricDanylovSorochanD − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.240.5−9.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanylovSorochanBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 149 vs 228 / 41533.6%54.9%50 / 149 vs 228 / 415Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanDanylov 4.33/Sorochan 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.1%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Danylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 23 · 06:00A. Danylov3711114113I. Sorochan36881191
LApr 12 · 17:28A. Danylov136520I. Sorochan331111113
LApr 12 · 15:30A. Danylov29612561I. Sorochan43111011113
LJan 25 · 14:30A. Danylov4612611982I. Sorochan501011711113
A. Danylov10
LOct 10 · 15:00A. Danylov2.5060A. Lysyi1.50111WOct 10 · 12:00A. Danylov2.63111173O. Levytskyi1.448760WOct 3 · 17:39A. Danylov1.57371111113V. Yarovyi2.2511119572LOct 3 · 16:00A. Danylov4.001164101V. Saakian1.2291111123WOct 3 · 15:00S. Zherykhin1.8011811652A. Danylov1.9191181193WOct 3 · 14:00V. Yarovyi2.63114841A. Danylov1.449111183LOct 3 · 12:30R. Sveshnykov1.281111113A. Danylov3.509450LOct 2 · 17:31A. Danylov2.759680O. Levytskyi1.401111113WOct 2 · 16:00A. Danylov3.25211113113S. Honcharenko1.3311891182LOct 2 · 15:00O. Levytskyi1.91101111113A. Danylov1.80123531
I. Sorochan10
WOct 10 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.5731111113O. Levytskyi2.25116691WOct 10 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.301111113A. Lysyi3.409870WOct 4 · 17:09O. Levytskyi1.91117101142I. Sorochan1.80711128113LOct 4 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.739980O. Levytskyi2.001111113LOct 4 · 15:00V. Simchuk1.44111211113I. Sorochan2.63514771LOct 4 · 14:00V. Kurliuk3.401111113I. Sorochan1.308940WOct 4 · 12:30A. Lysyi3.402990I. Sorochan1.301111113LSep 28 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.6711811113I. Sorochan2.10911981LSep 28 · 14:30I. Sorochan2.1011830V. Simchuk1.671311113LSep 28 · 13:30S. Sideltsev1.33913911113I. Sorochan3.25111111732
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