TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matej Nohejl vs Vitek Dvorak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116115––––
Vitek Dvorak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Nohejl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Nohejl above · Vitek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Matej Nohejl at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Matej Nohejl 1–0 Vitek Dvorak Vitek Dvorak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nohejl 1644 vs Dvorak 1572
Nohejl
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nohejl 40% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nohejl 40% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nohejl -1 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nohejl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNohejl 1.833 / Dvorak 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nohejl)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13269573
Nohejl1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Dvorak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 30) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNohejl1wins
AwayDvorak0wins
Nohejl leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNohejlDvorakN − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.020.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNohejlDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 180 vs 96 / 20751.1%46.4%92 / 180 vs 96 / 207Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NohejlNohejl 1.83/Dvorak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nohejl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nohejl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 10 · 06:30M. Nohejl331111113V. Dvorak209650
M. Nohejl10
WOct 10 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.0081111782M. Nohejl1.73117711113LOct 4 · 17:30M. Nohejl2.10118761M. Vizek1.6791111113WOct 4 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.4013119113T. Janata2.751171151LOct 4 · 15:00M. Nohejl2.1036111182M. Vizek1.67111157113WOct 4 · 14:00J. Zuzanek1.735960M. Nohejl2.001111113LSep 28 · 20:58M. Vizek1.8311913113M. Nohejl1.838111161LSep 28 · 20:30M. Nohejl1.837820M. Vizek1.831111113LSep 28 · 19:00M. Nohejl2.007670K. Schopf1.731111113WSep 28 · 18:00M. Sychra1.9111811752M. Nohejl1.80911511113WSep 27 · 17:30M. Nohejl1.9591111113M. Sychra1.75113441
V. Dvorak10
LOct 10 · 07:30V. Dvorak3.255411101M. Klement1.3311116123LSep 30 · 03:30R. Krejci1.8511911113V. Dvorak1.85811771WSep 30 · 02:30P. Zmuda2.201289101V. Dvorak1.61101111123LSep 30 · 01:00R. Krejci2.201111910113V. Dvorak1.6196111222WSep 29 · 23:30V. Dvorak1.571111117113D. Tuma2.2541371142WSep 29 · 22:00V. Dvorak1.8391111113K. Schopf1.83117931LSep 29 · 02:00M. Sychra1.83771111113V. Dvorak1.8311117772WSep 29 · 00:30V. Dvorak1.8011113113M. Vizek1.917111191LSep 28 · 23:00V. Dvorak1.679390K. Schopf2.101111113LSep 28 · 22:00M. Regner2.001111113V. Dvorak1.736460
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