TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Macurak vs Frantisek Chaloupka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 53 - H3 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614119118––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 69 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 59.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 3–4 Frantisek Chaloupka Michal Macurak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5959.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chaloupka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1678 vs Chaloupka 1711
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 80% vs Chaloupka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 50% vs Chaloupka 80%
Chaloupka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -1 · Chaloupka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Chaloupka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 2.25 / Chaloupka 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chaloupka)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268251
Macurak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 61 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Chaloupka1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 114 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it77% 95 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMacurak3wins
AwayChaloupka4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderChaloupka leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChaloupka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak2Chaloupka5n = 7Chaloupka took 5 of 7
S2Macurak1Chaloupka6n = 7Chaloupka took 6 of 7
S3Macurak4Chaloupka3n = 7Macurak took 4 of 7
S4Macurak2Chaloupka3n = 5Chaloupka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMacurakChaloupkaM − CBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match35.940.4−4.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 512 vs 305 / 57651.2%53%262 / 512 vs 305 / 576Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaMacurak 2.25/Chaloupka 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 24 · 09:40M. Macurak2713860F. Chaloupka371511113
LJul 18 · 21:18M. Macurak206950F. Chaloupka331111113
WJul 18 · 20:10M. Macurak46411911113F. Chaloupka4411911762
LJun 26 · 17:15M. Macurak31771161F. Chaloupka3911116113
WJun 26 · 13:45M. Macurak4211515113F. Chaloupka397111381
LMar 7 · 17:45M. Macurak344711121F. Chaloupka4311117143
WMar 7 · 15:15M. Macurak511110136113F. Chaloupka48912111152
M. Macurak10
LOct 9 · 13:45B. Moravec1.501112113M. Macurak2.5081080WOct 3 · 17:14M. Macurak1.831114163T. Krenek1.83612140WOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151WOct 3 · 14:45M. Macurak1.911211413113T. Krenek1.80106111572WOct 3 · 13:45M. Macurak2.001111119113K. Kleprlik1.7361351132WOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.801156101M. Macurak1.9181111123LOct 3 · 11:45M. Macurak2.00571661J. Skvrna1.73111114113LOct 3 · 10:45M. Macurak1.731151661J. Krupnik2.0091118113LOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113LOct 2 · 12:48L. Dzida2.00592011113M. Macurak1.73111118542
F. Chaloupka10
WOct 9 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.611151211113J. Krupnik2.2041114782WOct 7 · 17:14M. Zaskodny2.2595120F. Chaloupka1.571111143LOct 7 · 15:45M. Zaskodny2.00311115113F. Chaloupka1.7311881152WOct 7 · 15:15D. Stusek2.108101161F. Chaloupka1.6711128113WOct 7 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.8311101110113D. Skulina1.8361241262WOct 5 · 17:08D. Skulina1.9177111172F. Chaloupka1.80111186113LOct 5 · 15:40F. Chaloupka1.73121180D. Skulina2.001413113WOct 5 · 14:40F. Chaloupka1.8012115163K. Kleprlik1.9110911141WOct 5 · 13:40F. Chaloupka1.67111011113L. Dzida2.10412751WOct 4 · 09:23F. Chaloupka1.611111119113J. Travnicek2.2077131132
Upcoming Matches
M. Macurak
F. Chaloupka
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