TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Kamil Kleprlik vs Adam Kanak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12109111151214119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeKamil Kleprlik to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kleprlik above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Kamil Kleprlik at 59.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kleprlik 1–2 Adam Kanak Kamil Kleprlik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3159.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kleprlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kleprlik 1598 vs Kanak 1552
Kleprlik
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kleprlik 40% vs Kanak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kleprlik 40% vs Kanak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kleprlik -1 · Kanak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kleprlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKleprlik 1.571 / Kanak 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kleprlik)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268215
Kleprlik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 53 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Kanak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog60% won 36 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back38% 11 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKleprlik1wins
AwayKanak2wins
Kanak leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kleprlik1Kanak2n = 3Kanak took 2 of 3
S2Kleprlik2Kanak1n = 3Kleprlik took 2 of 3
S3Kleprlik2Kanak1n = 3Kleprlik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKleprlikKanakKleprlik − KanakBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.034.0−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKleprlikKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 554 vs 91 / 16849.3%54.2%273 / 554 vs 91 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KleprlikKleprlik 1.57/Kanak 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kleprlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kleprlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik30811381A. Kanak3411111113
WSep 23 · 16:15K. Kleprlik341211113A. Kanak2410680
LSep 18 · 18:10K. Kleprlik35671391A. Kanak44111111113
K. Kleprlik10
LOct 9 · 18:40K. Kleprlik1.83811101142I. Heuman1.83119127113WOct 9 · 17:40K. Kleprlik1.73121011113D. Vitasek2.001012881WOct 5 · 16:39L. Dzida1.801191091K. Kleprlik1.9191112113LOct 5 · 16:10K. Kleprlik1.8081191152L. Dzida1.91119118113LOct 5 · 14:40F. Chaloupka1.8012115163K. Kleprlik1.9110911141LOct 5 · 14:10D. Skulina1.5311117123K. Kleprlik2.386811101LOct 3 · 21:14K. Kleprlik2.106111111102I. Heuman1.67111379123WOct 3 · 19:45I. Heuman1.67138116102K. Kleprlik2.101111811123WOct 3 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.10612671K. Kleprlik1.67111011113LOct 3 · 18:15K. Kleprlik1.401112111172T. Kindl2.75131494113
A. Kanak10
LOct 9 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.10311119113A. Kanak1.6711971192LOct 9 · 18:10A. Kanak2.20771191I. Heuman1.6111118113WOct 8 · 16:50R. Sedlacek1.73411113122A. Kanak2.001111911143WOct 8 · 15:45A. Kanak2.00111114113T. Krenek1.73991641LOct 8 · 14:45A. Kanak1.83911116112R. Sedlacek1.83118911133LOct 8 · 13:45A. Kanak1.5391112782V. Konvicka2.381181011113WOct 7 · 20:45J. Przybyla2.256860A. Kanak1.571111113WOct 7 · 19:45A. Kanak1.57671111113D. Vitasek2.2511119682LOct 7 · 18:45A. Kanak1.80116871D. Branny1.8681111113LOct 7 · 17:45A. Kanak1.619811101J. Przybyla2.2011113123
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