TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Krukar vs Dawid Poloszczanski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121161311––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Poloszczanski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
11810121161311––
H2H Piotr Krukar 3–1 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Krukar beat Poloszczanski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2054.0%Our read56.8%to break even at 1.76
short by 2.8pp56.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.76 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (53%)
Poloszczanski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Krukar
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krukar 1303 vs Poloszczanski 1210
Krukar
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krukar 80% vs Poloszczanski 40%
Krukar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krukar 70% vs Poloszczanski 30%
Krukar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krukar +2 · Poloszczanski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Poloszczanski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrukar 1.95 / Poloszczanski 1.76
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Poloszczanski)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266950
Krukar1.95
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog21% won 3 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Poloszczanski1.76
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 62 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKrukar3wins
AwayPoloszczanski1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKrukar leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krukar2Poloszczanski2n = 4split evenly
S2Krukar2Poloszczanski2n = 4split evenly
S3Krukar4Poloszczanski0n = 4Krukar took 4 of 4
S4Krukar2Poloszczanski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKrukarPoloszczanskiK − PBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match45.843.5+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrukarPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 73 vs 359 / 88745.2%40.5%33 / 73 vs 359 / 887Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PoloszczanskiKrukar 1.95/Poloszczanski 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Poloszczanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krukar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 8 · 15:50P. Krukar4311812123D. Poloszczanski3871110101
WOct 3 · 08:10P. Krukar49119117113D. Poloszczanski4451191182
LSep 23 · 23:45P. Krukar4261112942D. Poloszczanski521191011113
WSep 23 · 20:05P. Krukar49101111173D. Poloszczanski401285151
P. Krukar10
WOct 8 · 23:45M. Skorski1.86961191P. Krukar1.8011114113WOct 8 · 22:35P. Krukar1.85111013113J. Rolak1.805121191LOct 8 · 21:55M. Trela1.6411113123P. Krukar1.999911101WOct 8 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.90391151P. Krukar1.8011114113WOct 8 · 18:55M. Trela1.65118561P. Krukar2.1051111113WOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar1.801111113J. Rolak1.859780LOct 8 · 16:35P. Krukar1.80711961M. Skorski1.8511711113WOct 8 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski1.8071110101P. Krukar1.8611812123WOct 8 · 00:10B. Mrugala2.06571191P. Krukar1.6011117113LOct 7 · 23:45P. Krukar2.4011116562A. Myszewski1.50671111113
D. Poloszczanski10
LOct 8 · 22:55M. Skorski1.8011119123D. Poloszczanski1.869611101WOct 8 · 22:15J. Rolak2.106850D. Poloszczanski1.601111113LOct 8 · 21:30M. Trela1.90513119113D. Poloszczanski1.80111171182LOct 8 · 20:05D. Poloszczanski1.801191141M. Skorski1.8513119113WOct 8 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.85121170D. Poloszczanski1.851413113LOct 8 · 17:45M. Trela1.78117119113D. Poloszczanski1.9371171122LOct 8 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski1.767111051J. Rolak1.9611412113LOct 8 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski1.8071110101P. Krukar1.8611812123LOct 4 · 00:35R. Stapor1.341111113D. Poloszczanski3.004940WOct 3 · 22:55M. Trela1.91111081162D. Poloszczanski1.80612115113
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