TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Krukar vs Jaroslaw Rolak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11510121311119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:27 and never touched: 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timePiotr Krukar to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
11510121311119––
H2H Piotr Krukar 3–2 Jaroslaw Rolak Jaroslaw Rolak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Krukar beat Rolak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2754.8%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
clears by 0.7pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rolak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krukar 1280 vs Rolak 1212
Krukar
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krukar 60% vs Rolak 40%
Krukar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krukar 70% vs Rolak 50%
Krukar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krukar -1 · Rolak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Krukar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrukar 1.85 / Rolak 1.80
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Krukar)+0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13266734
Krukar1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog21% won 3 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Rolak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 135 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it87% 64 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 107 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKrukar3wins
AwayRolak2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKrukar leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrukarn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRolak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krukar1Rolak4n = 5Rolak took 4 of 5
S2Krukar5Rolak0n = 5Krukar took 5 of 5
S3Krukar2Rolak3n = 5Rolak took 3 of 5
S4Krukar1Rolak3n = 4Rolak took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKrukarRolakK − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match38.238.8−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrukarRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 71 vs 635 / 143143.7%44.4%31 / 71 vs 635 / 1431Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrukarKrukar 1.85/Rolak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Krukar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krukar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar331111113J. Rolak249780
LOct 3 · 11:25P. Krukar27611461J. Rolak3911611113
LOct 3 · 07:20P. Krukar34912851J. Rolak43111011113
WSep 24 · 22:35P. Krukar49711119113J. Rolak3811361172
WSep 24 · 16:55P. Krukar48314911113J. Rolak50111211972
P. Krukar10
WOct 9 · 00:35P. Krukar1.95111011133D. Poloszczanski1.768126111WOct 8 · 23:45M. Skorski1.86961191P. Krukar1.8011114113LOct 8 · 21:55M. Trela1.6411113123P. Krukar1.999911101WOct 8 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.90391151P. Krukar1.8011114113WOct 8 · 18:55M. Trela1.65118561P. Krukar2.1051111113WOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar1.801111113J. Rolak1.859780LOct 8 · 16:35P. Krukar1.80711961M. Skorski1.8511711113WOct 8 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski1.8071110101P. Krukar1.8611812123WOct 8 · 00:10B. Mrugala2.06571191P. Krukar1.6011117113LOct 7 · 23:45P. Krukar2.4011116562A. Myszewski1.50671111113
J. Rolak10
LOct 8 · 23:20M. Trela1.671113113J. Rolak1.9591160LOct 8 · 22:15J. Rolak2.106850D. Poloszczanski1.601111113LOct 8 · 21:05M. Skorski1.5211157113J. Rolak2.309131181WOct 8 · 20:30M. Trela1.7510911151J. Rolak1.9812118173WOct 8 · 19:20J. Rolak2.20111169113M. Skorski1.6047111192LOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar1.801111113J. Rolak1.859780WOct 8 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski1.767111051J. Rolak1.9611412113LOct 8 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.351111123J. Rolak1.5285100LOct 6 · 23:20M. Skorski1.571111113J. Rolak2.257870WOct 6 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.7210960J. Rolak2.001211113
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