TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Jurowicz vs Rafal Komandzik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191012116116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:25 and never touched: 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Jurowicz to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1191012116116––
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 0–1 Rafal Komandzik Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Komandzik beat Jurowicz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2566.2%Our read73.5%to break even at 1.36
short by 7.3pp73.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.36 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (66%)
Jurowicz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1290 vs Komandzik 1107
Jurowicz
Correct
both rated, 183 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 0% vs Komandzik 20%
Komandzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 50% vs Komandzik 30%
Jurowicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz -5 · Komandzik +1
Jurowicz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Jurowicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komandzik form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 1.36 / Komandzik 2.66
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Jurowicz)-7.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266883
Jurowicz1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 51 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Komandzik2.66
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJurowicz0wins
AwayKomandzik1wins
Komandzik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricJurowiczKomandzikJ − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.039.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczKomandzikBasisWin rate · lifetime329 / 818 vs 5 / 2740.2%18.5%329 / 818 vs 5 / 27Avg sets wonper match1.71.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.531.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JurowiczJurowicz 1.36/Komandzik 2.66
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.2%
Jurowicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 8 · 16:50G. Jurowicz35118881R. Komandzik3961111113
G. Jurowicz10
LOct 8 · 22:25O. Vincenec1.8011611113G. Jurowicz1.90911781LOct 8 · 21:35G. Jurowicz2.557840P. Kurek1.451111113LOct 8 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.551111113G. Jurowicz2.304680LOct 8 · 19:10K. Adamus1.471111113G. Jurowicz2.457850LOct 8 · 18:25G. Jurowicz2.404390W. Pytlas1.501111113LOct 8 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.47118881R. Komandzik2.4061111113WOct 8 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.8491191152G. Jurowicz1.87118115113WOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113WOct 7 · 01:10A. Burkacki1.9011761192G. Jurowicz1.75711119113WOct 7 · 00:25G. Jurowicz2.40891211123P. Adamus1.501111107102
R. Komandzik10
WOct 8 · 22:50K. Adamus1.26121081152R. Komandzik3.501012117113LOct 8 · 21:10O. Vincenec1.52111110113R. Komandzik2.30781281LOct 8 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141111113R. Komandzik5.007720LOct 8 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.271111113R. Komandzik3.259360LOct 8 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.2211811113R. Komandzik4.00511451WOct 8 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.47118881R. Komandzik2.4061111113LOct 8 · 15:10K. Adamus1.601113173R. Komandzik2.10711150LSep 11 · 08:20M. Adamus1.301011911133R. Komandzik3.25124117112WSep 11 · 07:35J. Nowak1.70136661R. Komandzik2.00111111113LSep 11 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.341111113R. Komandzik3.005660
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