TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Skorski vs Piotr Krukar 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611114911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Skorski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
911611114911––
H2H Michal Skorski 2–1 Piotr Krukar Piotr Krukar has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Skorski beat Krukar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3954.0%Our read53.8%to break even at 1.86
clears by 0.2pp53.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.86 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krukar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorski 1329 vs Krukar 1280
Skorski
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorski 80% vs Krukar 60%
Skorski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorski 70% vs Krukar 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorski +3 · Krukar -1
Skorski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skorski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorski 1.86 / Krukar 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skorski)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13266882
Skorski1.86
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 80 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Krukar1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkorski2wins
AwayKrukar1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSkorski leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorski2Krukar1n = 3Skorski took 2 of 3
S2Skorski0Krukar3n = 3Krukar took 3 of 3
S3Skorski3Krukar0n = 3Skorski took 3 of 3
S4Skorski1Krukar2n = 3Krukar took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkorskiKrukarS − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.742.0−5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorskiKrukarBasisWin rate · lifetime738 / 1524 vs 31 / 7148.4%43.7%738 / 1524 vs 31 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkorskiSkorski 1.86/Krukar 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krukar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 8 · 16:35M. Skorski4011711113P. Krukar33711961
WSep 25 · 00:35M. Skorski41114114113P. Krukar4991191192
LSep 24 · 15:50M. Skorski29561351P. Krukar44111111113
M. Skorski10
LOct 9 · 00:10M. Trela1.801111123M. Skorski1.9087100WOct 8 · 22:55M. Skorski1.8011119123D. Poloszczanski1.869611101WOct 8 · 21:05M. Skorski1.5211157113J. Rolak2.309131181WOct 8 · 20:05D. Poloszczanski1.801191141M. Skorski1.8513119113LOct 8 · 19:20J. Rolak2.20111169113M. Skorski1.6047111192WOct 8 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.10118781M. Skorski1.6371111113WOct 8 · 16:35P. Krukar1.80711961M. Skorski1.8511711113WOct 8 · 15:00M. Trela1.95116115112M. Skorski1.76911911133LOct 7 · 00:10M. Skorski1.7361171182K. Golaszewski1.98119115113WOct 6 · 23:20M. Skorski1.571111113J. Rolak2.257870
P. Krukar10
WOct 8 · 22:35P. Krukar1.85111013113J. Rolak1.805121191LOct 8 · 21:55M. Trela1.6411113123P. Krukar1.999911101WOct 8 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.90391151P. Krukar1.8011114113WOct 8 · 18:55M. Trela1.65118561P. Krukar2.1051111113WOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar1.801111113J. Rolak1.859780LOct 8 · 16:35P. Krukar1.80711961M. Skorski1.8511711113WOct 8 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski1.8071110101P. Krukar1.8611812123WOct 8 · 00:10B. Mrugala2.06571191P. Krukar1.6011117113LOct 7 · 23:45P. Krukar2.4011116562A. Myszewski1.50671111113WOct 7 · 22:55P. Krukar1.571112113W. Suchecki2.2581060
Upcoming Matches
M. Skorski
Nothing scheduled
P. Krukar
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.