TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Pawel Kurek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1158111210117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:06 and never touched: 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1158111210117––
H2H Marek Tkocz 6–1 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:0663.4%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
short by 5.1pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1453 vs Kurek 1401
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Kurek 40%
Tkocz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.46 / Kurek 2.35
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Tkocz)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266785
Tkocz1.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 287 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 241 of 279
Kurek2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 138 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back22% 43 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTkocz6wins
AwayKurek1wins
3 of 7 to a deciderTkocz leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz100%5 of 5
AwayKurekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz5Kurek2n = 7Tkocz took 5 of 7
S2Tkocz4Kurek3n = 7Tkocz took 4 of 7
S3Tkocz5Kurek2n = 7Tkocz took 5 of 7
S4Tkocz4Kurek1n = 5Tkocz took 4 of 5
S5Tkocz2Kurek1n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricTkoczKurekT − KBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match42.931.1+11.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime772 / 1168 vs 480 / 94066.1%51.1%772 / 1168 vs 480 / 940Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.46/Kurek 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.4%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 29 · 22:50M. Tkocz4211119113P. Kurek27631171
LSep 29 · 15:10M. Tkocz4899111182P. Kurek47111177113
WSep 23 · 02:00M. Tkocz331111113P. Kurek175570
WSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz511161112113P. Kurek4341171472
WAug 19 · 01:10M. Tkocz331111113P. Kurek134720
WJul 9 · 21:35M. Tkocz4211911113P. Kurek31911651
WMar 1 · 08:10M. Tkocz51911911113P. Kurek4011711382
M. Tkocz10
WOct 9 · 00:00O. Vincenec3.501071171M. Tkocz1.2512118113LOct 8 · 22:00M. Tkocz1.677980K. Adamus1.951111113WOct 8 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141111113R. Komandzik5.007720WOct 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.78118981M. Tkocz1.9191111113WOct 8 · 18:00K. Adamus1.91871171M. Tkocz1.8011115113WOct 8 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.461111113W. Pytlas2.554130LOct 8 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.8491191152G. Jurowicz1.87118115113LOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113LOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940
P. Kurek10
WOct 9 · 00:25K. Adamus1.7010860P. Kurek2.001211113WOct 8 · 21:35G. Jurowicz2.557840P. Kurek1.451111113LOct 8 · 08:20P. Kurek2.10117451K. Hetnar1.6081111113LOct 8 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.60141459113P. Kurek2.151212111172WOct 8 · 06:00M. Cesarz2.57135441P. Kurek1.45111111113LOct 8 · 05:10P. Kurek1.97911751O. Sokolowski1.7611911113LOct 8 · 04:00P. Kurek1.8039120A. Burkacki1.851111143WOct 8 · 02:45P. Gumulinski1.7489111472P. Kurek1.951111912113WOct 8 · 01:35P. Kurek1.511111113M. Baron2.235360WOct 8 · 00:25T. Wrzalik2.05811991P. Kurek1.6511811113
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