TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Veigl vs Josef Dolezal 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111141148111210
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:31 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Josef Dolezal below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 90 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Lukas Veigl at 58.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 1–2 Josef Dolezal Lukas Veigl has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:3158.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Veigl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1742 vs Dolezal 1611
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 20% vs Dolezal 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 60% vs Dolezal 40%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl -4 · Dolezal -2
Veigl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Veigl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 1.666 / Dolezal 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Veigl)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266093
Veigl1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 69 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it77% 46 of 60
Dolezal2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 24 days ago (Sep 15) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVeigl1wins
AwayDolezal2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDolezal leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayDolezal66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl0Dolezal3n = 3Dolezal took 3 of 3
S2Veigl2Dolezal1n = 3Veigl took 2 of 3
S3Veigl2Dolezal1n = 3Veigl took 2 of 3
S4Veigl2Dolezal1n = 3Veigl took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVeiglDolezalV − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match34.536.5−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 541 vs 60 / 13451.4%44.8%278 / 541 vs 60 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglVeigl 1.67/Dolezal 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJun 18 · 10:00L. Veigl28651161J. Dolezal3711114113
WApr 22 · 14:45L. Veigl4181111113J. Dolezal36117991
L. Veigl10
LOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa2.1011115113L. Veigl1.67691181WOct 9 · 10:45L. Veigl1.73111378113T. Liska2.00511111162LOct 6 · 16:44L. Veigl2.50114591J. Krames Sr1.5081111113LOct 6 · 15:45J. Krames Sr1.611111153L. Veigl2.2047130LOct 6 · 14:45M. Makara2.25125115113L. Veigl1.57101181182LOct 6 · 13:15V. Grubr1.8311511113L. Veigl1.83811881WOct 4 · 20:48L. Veigl1.671381112113O. Mezera2.10151161072WOct 4 · 19:45S. Rejent2.2571171142L. Veigl1.57114119113WOct 4 · 18:45O. Mezera2.207121011102L. Veigl1.611110129123WOct 4 · 17:15T. Liska2.2081191252L. Veigl1.611151110113
J. Dolezal10
LOct 9 · 11:45J. Dolezal1.919146111T. Liska1.80111211133WOct 9 · 10:15R. Pisa1.539780J. Dolezal2.381111113LSep 15 · 20:14J. Krames Sr1.611211113J. Dolezal2.2010770LSep 15 · 19:15J. Dolezal2.2011371192V. Grubr1.61711118113WSep 15 · 18:15J. Dolezal2.0041111113S. Rejent1.73117881LSep 15 · 17:15J. Dolezal2.50821441J. Krames Sr1.50111112113LSep 15 · 12:13J. Dolezal1.836540M. Vyskocil1.831111113WSep 15 · 11:15M. Vyskocil1.831181011122J. Dolezal1.83711127143LSep 15 · 10:45J. Dolezal2.10771181M. Kocvara1.6711118113WSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890
Upcoming Matches
L. Veigl
Nothing scheduled
J. Dolezal
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