TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Krzysztof Schaniel 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111161210117––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched: 66.4% is still 66.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
66.4%
66.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
8111161210117––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 20–39 Krzysztof Schaniel Jakub Kaczmarek has won 20 of their 59 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Schaniel beat Kaczmarek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4366.4%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
short by 2.1pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (64%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-39 in 59
Schaniel
Wrong
gap of 19 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1251 vs Schaniel 1339
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Schaniel 80%
Schaniel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Schaniel 70%
Schaniel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -3 · Schaniel -1
Kaczmarek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Schaniel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.56 / Schaniel 1.46
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Schaniel)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264897
Kaczmarek2.56
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 180 of 507
Down 0–1, comes back18% 55 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 179
Schaniel1.46
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite58% won 193 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 92 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it75% 143 of 192
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek6wins
AwaySchaniel4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek85.7%6 of 7
AwaySchaniel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek7Schaniel3n = 10Kaczmarek took 7 of 10
S2Kaczmarek5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaczmarek5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S4Kaczmarek1Schaniel7n = 8Schaniel took 7 of 8
S5Kaczmarek4Schaniel0n = 4Kaczmarek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekSchanielK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.4−2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime515 / 1366 vs 861 / 173937.7%49.5%515 / 1366 vs 861 / 1739Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielKaczmarek 2.56/Schaniel 1.46
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.4%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek30117841K. Schaniel4291111113
WAug 27 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek50111198113K. Schaniel4268111162
WAug 27 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek51126128133K. Schaniel5310111011112
WAug 3 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek481121211123K. Schaniel539111013102
WJul 29 · 14:45J. Kaczmarek361411113K. Schaniel2912890
LJul 29 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek33661381K. Schaniel44111111113
WJul 22 · 14:20J. Kaczmarek47115812113K. Schaniel50911111092
LJul 22 · 08:10J. Kaczmarek341112741K. Schaniel45131011113
WJun 18 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek331111113K. Schaniel259880
LJun 18 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek36911971K. Schaniel4111811113
J. Kaczmarek10
LOct 8 · 13:10J. Kaczmarek1.8511712542P. Slosarczyk1.859111011113LOct 8 · 12:20W. Glanowski1.858111115113J. Kaczmarek1.85111341392LOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek2.15117841K. Schaniel1.6491111113WOct 8 · 09:30J. Kaczmarek1.757111110113J. Nowak1.9511091242WOct 8 · 08:20J. Kaczmarek2.0071211113W. Glanowski1.711110891LOct 8 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.472371261J. Badura1.49211114113WOct 8 · 05:30J. Kaczmarek1.85611511113P. Slosarczyk1.8511711982LOct 7 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek2.307160P. Adamus1.521111113WOct 7 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.00712124113A. Burkacki1.721110101192LOct 7 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.159590M. Adamus1.601111113
K. Schaniel10
LOct 8 · 13:30W. Glanowski2.32811611113K. Schaniel1.5511411762WOct 8 · 11:55J. Badura1.87781141K. Schaniel1.8311116113WOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek2.15117841K. Schaniel1.6491111113WOct 8 · 09:55K. Schaniel1.681011711113P. Slosarczyk2.0512911752WOct 8 · 08:45J. Nowak2.658680K. Schaniel1.431111113WOct 8 · 07:30W. Glanowski2.2511441182K. Schaniel1.55711118113LOct 8 · 05:55J. Badura1.80611611113K. Schaniel1.8611511562WOct 7 · 02:10K. Durak1.25109110K. Schaniel3.751211133LOct 7 · 01:25M. Baron2.503K. Schaniel1.500WOct 6 · 23:20J. Badura1.747880K. Schaniel1.951111113
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K. Schaniel
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