TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Unzeitig vs Marek Holub 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116611711115811
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Unzeitig to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Unzeitig above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Daniel Unzeitig at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Unzeitig 10–14 Marek Holub Daniel Unzeitig has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Holub
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Unzeitig 1633 vs Holub 1576
Unzeitig
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Unzeitig 60% vs Holub 40%
Unzeitig
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Unzeitig 50% vs Holub 30%
Unzeitig
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Unzeitig +1 · Holub -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Unzeitig) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUnzeitig 1.909 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Unzeitig)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264888
Unzeitig1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Holub1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 21 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUnzeitig4wins
AwayHolub6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUnzeitig57.1%4 of 7
AwayHolub100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Unzeitig7Holub3n = 10Unzeitig took 7 of 10
S2Unzeitig2Holub8n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S3Unzeitig4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Unzeitig3Holub3n = 6split evenly
S5Unzeitig2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUnzeitigHolubU − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.638.4−0.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUnzeitigHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 317 vs 165 / 35747.3%46.2%150 / 317 vs 165 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UnzeitigUnzeitig 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Unzeitig · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 14:00D. Unzeitig4311511792M. Holub41311511113
WSep 11 · 17:00D. Unzeitig46111311113M. Holub37815861
WSep 11 · 15:30D. Unzeitig42114511113M. Holub3661111532
LAug 28 · 07:30D. Unzeitig247980M. Holub331111113
LAug 17 · 16:59D. Unzeitig194690M. Holub331111113
WAug 17 · 16:30D. Unzeitig331111113M. Holub195860
LAug 7 · 14:30D. Unzeitig238960M. Holub331111113
LJul 13 · 14:00D. Unzeitig47111291052M. Holub484101112113
WJun 30 · 15:00D. Unzeitig551461113113M. Holub551211131182
LJun 24 · 21:00D. Unzeitig4411711782M. Holub49711911113
D. Unzeitig10
WOct 9 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.577540D. Unzeitig2.251111113WOct 9 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8081160D. Unzeitig1.911113113LOct 5 · 17:29D. Unzeitig2.209111281J. Holubec1.6111714113WOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.50971471D. Unzeitig2.50111112113WOct 5 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9113118133D. Langer1.8011911111LOct 5 · 14:30J. Holubec1.731116113D. Unzeitig2.0081490WSep 30 · 17:10D. Unzeitig1.7391111113J. Holubec2.00117671LSep 30 · 16:30D. Unzeitig2.00121179122J. Simecek1.731091111143WSep 30 · 15:00D. Unzeitig2.25117811133J. Holubec1.57911111112LSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792
M. Holub10
WOct 9 · 17:00M. Holub1.571111113Z. Pagac2.256850LOct 9 · 16:00M. Holub2.6311611462T. Kypr1.44411911113LOct 9 · 14:00M. Holub2.10101211582Z. Pagac1.671210311113LOct 6 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.5211134143M. Holub2.3551111121WOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113WOct 6 · 19:30M. Holub2.101391311113D. Szotek1.67111115762LOct 6 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711211113M. Holub2.25411681LOct 2 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.53118711113M. Holub2.3841111982LOct 2 · 20:30M. Holub2.209740T. Kypr1.611111113WSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792
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