TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Robert Jamrich vs Petr Chlumsky 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191210116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:26 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRobert Jamrich above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Petr Chlumsky at 54.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Robert Jamrich 14–15 Petr Chlumsky Robert Jamrich has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jamrich beat Chlumsky 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2654.3%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.5pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Chlumsky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jamrich 1465 vs Chlumsky 1499
Chlumsky
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jamrich 60% vs Chlumsky 40%
Jamrich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jamrich 40% vs Chlumsky 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jamrich +3 · Chlumsky +1
Jamrich
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chlumsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJamrich 2.02 / Chlumsky 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chlumsky)-4.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264830
Jamrich2.02
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 21 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Chlumsky1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 22 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJamrich8wins
AwayChlumsky2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJamrich leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJamrich85.7%6 of 7
AwayChlumsky33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jamrich7Chlumsky3n = 10Jamrich took 7 of 10
S2Jamrich6Chlumsky4n = 10Jamrich took 6 of 10
S3Jamrich5Chlumsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Jamrich3Chlumsky4n = 7Chlumsky took 4 of 7
S5Jamrich4Chlumsky0n = 4Jamrich took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJamrichChlumskyJ − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.238.4+3.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJamrichChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 302 vs 142 / 31145%45.7%136 / 302 vs 142 / 311Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyJamrich 2.02/Chlumsky 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jamrich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 12:25R. Jamrich51111388113P. Chlumsky46711111162
LSep 30 · 11:55R. Jamrich2891360P. Chlumsky371115113
WSep 8 · 07:25R. Jamrich331111113P. Chlumsky249870
LJul 22 · 11:25R. Jamrich301141051P. Chlumsky4391112113
WApr 15 · 07:25R. Jamrich4411811143P. Chlumsky376118121
WMar 19 · 11:30R. Jamrich5613111011113P. Chlumsky47114121372
WMar 19 · 08:55R. Jamrich49111188113P. Chlumsky4687111192
WMar 17 · 12:55R. Jamrich43101111113P. Chlumsky35127791
WMar 12 · 14:25R. Jamrich54991111143P. Chlumsky47111185122
WMar 11 · 11:55R. Jamrich341211113P. Chlumsky2210480
R. Jamrich10
WOct 8 · 12:55L. Moravec1.5378100R. Jamrich2.381111123WOct 8 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.83711111162R. Jamrich1.83111388113WOct 8 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.831113113A. Kral1.8391180LOct 4 · 17:33J. Kulveit1.471111143R. Jamrich2.5066120LOct 4 · 16:20J. Kulveit1.571111113R. Jamrich2.257850WOct 4 · 15:50D. Sykora1.833690R. Jamrich1.831111113LOct 4 · 14:50R. Jamrich2.007980O. Varecka1.731111113LSep 30 · 14:08R. Jamrich1.839811121M. Filipek1.8311116143LSep 30 · 13:25R. Jamrich1.831011115132F. Marat1.83125911153LSep 30 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.911115113R. Jamrich1.8091360
P. Chlumsky10
WOct 8 · 13:25A. Kral1.6181170P. Chlumsky2.201113113LOct 8 · 12:25P. Chlumsky1.83711111162R. Jamrich1.83111388113LOct 8 · 10:55L. Moravec1.837111111143P. Chlumsky1.83111388122LOct 6 · 10:45P. Chlumsky1.91411471R. Muller1.8011711113WOct 6 · 09:25M. Filipek2.251411211132P. Chlumsky1.571261113153WOct 6 · 08:25P. Chlumsky2.10711311123F. Balcar1.67119118102WOct 6 · 06:55R. Muller1.73115971P. Chlumsky2.0091111113LOct 5 · 10:03P. Chlumsky1.444911121F. Marat2.6311119143LOct 5 · 09:25A. Kral2.25101511113P. Chlumsky1.571213781WSep 30 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.911115113R. Jamrich1.8091360
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.