TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Chlumsky vs Robert Jamrich 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111113118118611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Robert Jamrich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Petr Chlumsky at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 15–13 Robert Jamrich Robert Jamrich has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jamrich
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Chlumsky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1498 vs Jamrich 1438
Chlumsky
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 60% vs Jamrich 40%
Chlumsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 50% vs Jamrich 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky -2 · Jamrich +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chlumsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jamrich form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.833 / Jamrich 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chlumsky)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13261869
Chlumsky1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jamrich1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlumsky3wins
AwayJamrich7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJamrich leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumsky33.3%1 of 3
AwayJamrich71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky3Jamrich7n = 10Jamrich took 7 of 10
S2Chlumsky4Jamrich6n = 10Jamrich took 6 of 10
S3Chlumsky5Jamrich5n = 10split evenly
S4Chlumsky4Jamrich3n = 7Chlumsky took 4 of 7
S5Chlumsky1Jamrich3n = 4Jamrich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlumskyJamrichC − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.6−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyJamrichBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 311 vs 136 / 30246%45%143 / 311 vs 136 / 302Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.83/Jamrich 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jamrich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 11:55P. Chlumsky371115113R. Jamrich2891360
LSep 8 · 07:25P. Chlumsky249870R. Jamrich331111113
WJul 22 · 11:25P. Chlumsky4391112113R. Jamrich301141051
LApr 15 · 07:25P. Chlumsky376118121R. Jamrich4411811143
LMar 19 · 11:30P. Chlumsky47114121372R. Jamrich5613111011113
LMar 19 · 08:55P. Chlumsky4687111192R. Jamrich49111188113
LMar 17 · 12:55P. Chlumsky35127791R. Jamrich43101111113
LMar 12 · 14:25P. Chlumsky47111185122R. Jamrich54991111143
LMar 11 · 11:55P. Chlumsky2210480R. Jamrich341211113
WMar 4 · 14:58P. Chlumsky47581211113R. Jamrich45111110762
P. Chlumsky10
WOct 8 · 13:25A. Kral1.6181170P. Chlumsky2.201113113LOct 8 · 10:55L. Moravec1.837111111143P. Chlumsky1.83111388122LOct 6 · 10:45P. Chlumsky1.91411471R. Muller1.8011711113WOct 6 · 09:25M. Filipek2.251411211132P. Chlumsky1.571261113153WOct 6 · 08:25P. Chlumsky2.10711311123F. Balcar1.67119118102WOct 6 · 06:55R. Muller1.73115971P. Chlumsky2.0091111113LOct 5 · 10:03P. Chlumsky1.444911121F. Marat2.6311119143LOct 5 · 09:25A. Kral2.25101511113P. Chlumsky1.571213781WOct 5 · 08:25P. Chlumsky1.61119811113M. Filipek2.2031111382WOct 5 · 06:55F. Marat2.501011491P. Chlumsky1.5012711113
R. Jamrich10
WOct 8 · 12:55L. Moravec1.5378100R. Jamrich2.381111123WOct 8 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.831113113A. Kral1.8391180LOct 4 · 17:33J. Kulveit1.471111143R. Jamrich2.5066120LOct 4 · 16:20J. Kulveit1.571111113R. Jamrich2.257850WOct 4 · 15:50D. Sykora1.833690R. Jamrich1.831111113LOct 4 · 14:50R. Jamrich2.007980O. Varecka1.731111113LSep 30 · 14:08R. Jamrich1.839811121M. Filipek1.8311116143LSep 30 · 13:25R. Jamrich1.831011115132F. Marat1.83125911153LSep 30 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.911115113R. Jamrich1.8091360WSep 30 · 11:25M. Filipek1.731111871R. Jamrich2.0081311113
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