TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Lysakowski vs Jan Masternak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118111351112101614
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched: 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
111 points played in total.
Set by set
118111351112101614
H2H Michal Lysakowski 52–69 Jan Masternak Michal Lysakowski has won 52 of their 121 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2059.4%Our read65.4%to break even at 1.53
short by 6.0pp65.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.53 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
52-69 in 121
Masternak
Wrong
gap of 17 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1623 vs Masternak 1557
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Masternak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 70% vs Masternak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Masternak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masternak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.53 / Masternak 2.35
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lysakowski)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263938
Lysakowski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 199 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it93% 124 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 167 of 215
Masternak2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 112 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back25% 36 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski3wins
AwayMasternak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMasternak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayMasternak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski3Masternak7n = 10Masternak took 7 of 10
S2Lysakowski4Masternak6n = 10Masternak took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski5Masternak5n = 10split evenly
S4Lysakowski6Masternak2n = 8Lysakowski took 6 of 8
S5Lysakowski1Masternak4n = 5Masternak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiMasternakL − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.144.6−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiMasternakBasisWin rate · lifetime667 / 1334 vs 413 / 93650%44.1%667 / 1334 vs 413 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.53/Masternak 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 18:35M. Lysakowski408911121J. Masternak4411118143
LOct 3 · 14:35M. Lysakowski2788110J. Masternak351111133
LOct 3 · 10:35M. Lysakowski4812561782J. Masternak5810111115113
WSep 25 · 07:00M. Lysakowski331111113J. Masternak215880
LSep 24 · 10:00M. Lysakowski4681181182J. Masternak48117118113
WSep 1 · 12:00M. Lysakowski4291111113J. Masternak22116141
LAug 30 · 23:45M. Lysakowski37291881J. Masternak49111116113
WAug 30 · 19:05M. Lysakowski52118613143J. Masternak549111111122
LAug 16 · 16:05M. Lysakowski551311101382J. Masternak581591211113
LAug 14 · 12:40M. Lysakowski5179151372J. Masternak5711111311113
M. Lysakowski10
WOct 8 · 08:30S. Wloszek2.24891191M. Lysakowski1.5911113113LOct 8 · 06:30D. Stapor2.15911128113M. Lysakowski1.63114101152WOct 8 · 05:30J. Chojnacki2.851191171M. Lysakowski1.3613117113WOct 7 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.5014118123S. Wloszek2.4012911101LOct 7 · 11:00M. Burkacki1.7211812113M. Lysakowski2.016111041WOct 7 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.55111110113S. Wloszek2.30991291WOct 7 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.901111113P. Gola1.765870WOct 7 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.501111163B. Molka2.4025140WOct 7 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.951211113D. Stapor1.7410560LOct 6 · 13:00M. Lysakowski1.3481090J. Chojnacki3.001112113
J. Masternak10
WOct 8 · 09:00J. Chojnacki2.10812101182J. Masternak1.651110128113LOct 8 · 07:00B. Molka1.761111113J. Masternak1.956770LOct 8 · 05:00D. Stapor1.5713811113J. Masternak2.111111851WOct 4 · 23:05J. Masternak—1311113S. Wloszek—11990WOct 4 · 22:05S. Wloszek1.5777100J. Masternak2.251111123WOct 4 · 20:35J. Masternak2.051116133S. Radlo1.66914110WOct 4 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.548911121J. Masternak2.2511118143LOct 4 · 16:35B. Molka1.831111133J. Masternak1.8607110LOct 4 · 15:35M. Burkacki1.831111113J. Masternak1.865880WOct 3 · 14:35J. Masternak2.301111133M. Lysakowski1.5588110
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