TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Rene Kowal 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121171012118117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Rene Kowal at 58.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 2–1 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0758.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kowal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1692 vs Kowal 1680
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 80% vs Kowal 60%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 60% vs Kowal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Kowal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kowal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 2.25 / Kowal 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kowal)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263900
Skvrna2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 14 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Kowal1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 41 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkvrna2wins
AwayKowal1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSkvrna leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna66.7%2 of 3
AwayKowaln = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna3Kowal0n = 3Skvrna took 3 of 3
S2Skvrna3Kowal0n = 3Skvrna took 3 of 3
S3Skvrna1Kowal2n = 3Kowal took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkvrnaKowalS − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.036.0+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 868 vs 160 / 31258%51.3%503 / 868 vs 160 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowalSkvrna 2.25/Kowal 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMar 23 · 19:10J. Skvrna4111117842R. Kowal47681111113
WDec 16 · 20:40J. Skvrna331111113R. Kowal247890
WDec 7 · 20:10J. Skvrna3711114113R. Kowal37991181
J. Skvrna10
WOct 8 · 13:40F. Sikora1.4499111142J. Skvrna2.63111158113LOct 7 · 09:15J. Skvrna1.80113941J. Gembala1.9161111113WOct 7 · 07:40J. Skvrna1.6781111133J. Gembala2.101198111WOct 7 · 06:40J. Skvrna1.67811611113L. Slavik2.1011711992WOct 7 · 05:40J. Skvrna1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.209980LOct 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.831111715113J. Skvrna1.8379111782WOct 6 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.20761151J. Skvrna1.6111118113WOct 6 · 11:10B. Mrowetz1.91911971J. Skvrna1.8011711113LOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113LOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153
R. Kowal10
WOct 8 · 14:10R. Kowal1.831313118113D. Sarganek1.83111521192LOct 6 · 21:10R. Kowal1.679660D. Sarganek2.101111113LOct 6 · 19:45J. Baca2.6051111113R. Kowal1.44116861WOct 6 · 19:15A. Baros1.918111041R. Kowal1.8011812113WOct 6 · 18:15R. Kowal1.91841112113D. Sarganek1.80111141052WSep 29 · 17:13F. Sikora1.83114771R. Kowal1.8351111113LSep 29 · 15:45F. Sikora1.8011411123R. Kowal1.918115101WSep 29 · 15:15P. Vicherek2.00117731R. Kowal1.7351111113WSep 29 · 14:15R. Kowal2.0011711113D. Sarganek1.73911741LSep 28 · 21:05R. Kowal2.207740D. Sarganek1.611111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Skvrna
R. Kowal
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