TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Tomasz Wrzalik 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:45 and never touched: 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
119117116––––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 20–2 Tomasz Wrzalik Tomasz Wrzalik has won 2 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Koczyba beat Wrzalik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:4569.8%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
clears by 3.1pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-2 in 22
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 18 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1399 vs Wrzalik 1335
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Wrzalik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 70% vs Wrzalik 50%
Koczyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +1 · Wrzalik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Koczyba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wrzalik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.50 / Wrzalik 2.35
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Koczyba)+3.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13262434
Koczyba1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 292 of 469
Up 2–0, closes it93% 149 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it78% 206 of 263
Wrzalik2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 68 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back17% 18 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba8wins
AwayWrzalik2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba83.3%5 of 6
AwayWrzalik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba6Wrzalik4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba7Wrzalik3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S3Koczyba7Wrzalik3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba5Wrzalik2n = 7Koczyba took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaWrzalikK − WBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.333.5+6.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaWrzalikBasisWin rate · lifetime853 / 1326 vs 260 / 58964.3%44.1%853 / 1326 vs 260 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.50/Wrzalik 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 16:25M. Koczyba371115113T. Wrzalik2341360
LJul 28 · 20:00M. Koczyba501211116102T. Wrzalik551091311123
WJul 14 · 20:00M. Koczyba4371111143T. Wrzalik341129121
LJul 7 · 20:00M. Koczyba217860T. Wrzalik331111113
WJun 30 · 20:00M. Koczyba501171110113T. Wrzalik4471161282
WJun 23 · 18:25M. Koczyba331111113T. Wrzalik198830
WJun 16 · 18:45M. Koczyba4291111113T. Wrzalik28116561
WMay 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba45131110113T. Wrzalik351171251
WMay 5 · 16:50M. Koczyba3961111113T. Wrzalik31116861
WApr 29 · 00:45M. Koczyba4315611113T. Wrzalik331311721
M. Koczyba10
WOct 8 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.551111113G. Jurowicz2.304680LOct 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.78118981M. Tkocz1.9191111113WOct 8 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.2211811113R. Komandzik4.00511451LOct 8 · 16:25K. Adamus1.851111113M. Koczyba1.808890LOct 8 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.666940W. Pytlas2.051111113WOct 8 · 00:45M. Koczyba1.39861113113A. Burkacki2.80111181182LOct 7 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.407860M. Baron2.521111113WOct 7 · 22:25P. Gumulinski1.769720M. Koczyba1.951111113WOct 7 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.601111113P. Kurek2.105360WOct 7 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.90841111113S. Krupa1.8011117852
T. Wrzalik10
WOct 8 · 01:10P. Gumulinski1.35115111042T. Wrzalik2.95611612113LOct 8 · 00:25T. Wrzalik2.05811991P. Kurek1.6511811113WOct 7 · 22:50T. Wrzalik1.79111179113M. Baron1.8177111182WOct 7 · 22:00A. Burkacki1.959811101T. Wrzalik1.7511118123WOct 7 · 20:45T. Wrzalik1.95111138143W. Pytlas1.74991111122LOct 7 · 19:10T. Wrzalik2.352880S. Krupa1.531111113WOct 7 · 18:00T. Wrzalik1.80128911113A. Ruszkiewicz1.85101111792LOct 7 · 16:25T. Wrzalik2.7541360M. Koczyba1.401115113LOct 7 · 15:10T. Wrzalik1.83991191M. Baron1.8611115113LAug 28 · 16:20T. Wrzalik2.6512119652G. Wichowski1.401071111113
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