TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Adamus vs Mariusz Koczyba 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118119––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:21 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
118118119––––
H2H Kacper Adamus 39–42 Mariusz Koczyba Kacper Adamus has won 39 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2157.2%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
clears by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-42 in 81
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 3 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1368 vs Koczyba 1400
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Koczyba 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Koczyba 80%
Koczyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Koczyba -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.85 / Koczyba 1.80
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Koczyba)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13265187
Adamus1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 81 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Koczyba1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 298 of 477
Up 2–0, closes it93% 152 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it78% 210 of 268
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus9wins
AwayKoczyba1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus87.5%7 of 8
AwayKoczyban = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus8Koczyba2n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S2Adamus6Koczyba4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus6Koczyba4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus5Koczyba2n = 7Adamus took 5 of 7
S5Adamus4Koczyba1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusKoczybaA − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.634.7+9.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusKoczybaBasisWin rate · lifetime923 / 1691 vs 854 / 132654.6%64.4%923 / 1691 vs 854 / 1326Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaAdamus 1.85/Koczyba 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 04:25K. Adamus47141011123M. Koczyba4012126101
WOct 1 · 16:25K. Adamus49111188113M. Koczyba3534111162
WAug 20 · 16:25K. Adamus48781111113M. Koczyba4111118562
LAug 2 · 04:00K. Adamus50111113962M. Koczyba50761511113
WJul 9 · 16:25K. Adamus331111113M. Koczyba207670
WJul 2 · 19:10K. Adamus521191011113M. Koczyba4241112692
WJun 25 · 16:25K. Adamus431111213M. Koczyba3083190
WJun 18 · 16:25K. Adamus4071111113M. Koczyba26111861
WJun 11 · 16:25K. Adamus331111113M. Koczyba174490
WMay 29 · 02:00K. Adamus51118811133M. Koczyba46611117112
K. Adamus10
LOct 8 · 18:00K. Adamus1.91871171M. Tkocz1.8011115113WOct 8 · 15:10K. Adamus1.601113173R. Komandzik2.10711150WOct 7 · 16:20K. Adamus1.70101111113R. Gajda2.04128691LOct 7 · 15:05K. Adamus2.178590R. Niemiec1.621111113WOct 7 · 13:55K. Adamus1.391111113O. Sokolowski2.809560WOct 7 · 12:45W. Urban1.778811101K. Adamus1.9511115123WOct 7 · 11:55K. Adamus1.501161111113O. Sokolowski2.4091161392LOct 7 · 10:20K. Adamus2.3099140W. Urban1.551111163LOct 7 · 09:05K. Adamus1.80711611112R. Niemiec1.90118115133WOct 7 · 07:55K. Adamus1.3591111113O. Sokolowski2.95115771
M. Koczyba10
WOct 8 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.2211811113R. Komandzik4.00511451LOct 8 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.666940W. Pytlas2.051111113WOct 8 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.501111113T. Wrzalik2.359760WOct 8 · 00:45M. Koczyba1.39861113113A. Burkacki2.80111181182LOct 7 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.407860M. Baron2.521111113WOct 7 · 22:25P. Gumulinski1.769720M. Koczyba1.951111113WOct 7 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.601111113P. Kurek2.105360WOct 7 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.90841111113S. Krupa1.8011117852WOct 7 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.52411115113A. Ruszkiewicz2.3011891162WOct 7 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.4611911113M. Baron2.50711481
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