TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Adrian Burkacki 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8116111181311118
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:43 and never touched: 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
8116111181311118
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 12–4 Adrian Burkacki Adrian Burkacki has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:4374.4%Our read71.9%to break even at 1.39
clears by 2.5pp71.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.39 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (67%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1393 vs Burkacki 1225
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Burkacki 0%
Koczyba
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Burkacki 20%
Koczyba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Burkacki -5
Burkacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Koczyba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.39 / Burkacki 2.80
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Koczyba)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13262237
Koczyba1.39
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 292 of 469
Up 2–0, closes it93% 149 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it78% 206 of 263
Burkacki2.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 50 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba6wins
AwayBurkacki4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba85.7%6 of 7
AwayBurkacki100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba7Burkacki3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S2Koczyba6Burkacki4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba7Burkacki3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba1Burkacki2n = 3Burkacki took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaBurkackiK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.129.7+4.4per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime852 / 1325 vs 137 / 38664.3%35.5%852 / 1325 vs 137 / 386Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.39/Burkacki 2.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.4%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 22:25M. Koczyba381116113A. Burkacki2961490
LAug 6 · 00:45M. Koczyba235990A. Burkacki331111113
LJul 29 · 21:35M. Koczyba321161141A. Burkacki4113116113
WJul 22 · 22:00M. Koczyba331111113A. Burkacki176380
WJul 15 · 23:35M. Koczyba4011116123A. Burkacki389811101
LJul 9 · 00:25M. Koczyba52137111562A. Burkacki591111917113
WJul 1 · 23:35M. Koczyba331111113A. Burkacki215970
LJun 10 · 23:35M. Koczyba2410950A. Burkacki341211113
WNov 20 · 00:35M. Koczyba331111113A. Burkacki145540
WNov 12 · 23:25M. Koczyba331111113A. Burkacki112810
M. Koczyba10
LOct 7 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.407860M. Baron2.521111113WOct 7 · 22:25P. Gumulinski1.769720M. Koczyba1.951111113WOct 7 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.601111113P. Kurek2.105360WOct 7 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.90841111113S. Krupa1.8011117852WOct 7 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.52411115113A. Ruszkiewicz2.3011891162WOct 7 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.4611911113M. Baron2.50711481WOct 7 · 16:25T. Wrzalik2.7541360M. Koczyba1.401115113LOct 7 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.7411101481W. Pytlas1.9531216113LOct 6 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.54711711102G. Jurowicz2.35116118123LOct 6 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.8867120M. Tkocz1.821111143
A. Burkacki10
LOct 8 · 00:00P. Gumulinski2.02117612113A. Burkacki1.72911111092LOct 7 · 23:10A. Burkacki2.60101480P. Kurek1.441216113LOct 7 · 22:00A. Burkacki1.959811101T. Wrzalik1.7511118123LOct 7 · 08:00R. Idaczyk1.801112143A. Burkacki1.85810120LOct 7 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.00712124113A. Burkacki1.721110101192WOct 7 · 06:25A. Burkacki2.371111133P. Adamus1.5239110WOct 7 · 04:50A. Burkacki1.9991112113J. Nowak1.741181081LOct 7 · 04:00M. Adamus1.68913116113A. Burkacki2.05111191172LOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 01:10A. Burkacki1.9011761192G. Jurowicz1.75711119113
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