TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Skvor vs Lukas Krupnik Jr 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210112––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 51 set 3, 11-2 · our read held Ondrej Skvor at 69.6%
51 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 2–0 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3769.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1445 vs Krupnik Jr 1392
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 0% vs Krupnik Jr 80%
Krupnik Jr
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 40% vs Krupnik Jr 60%
Krupnik Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor -5 · Krupnik Jr +2
Skvor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Skvor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.363 / Krupnik Jr 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Skvor)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261525
Skvor1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 66 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it65% 40 of 62
Krupnik Jr3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 90 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back34% 29 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSkvor2wins
AwayKrupnik Jr0wins
Skvor leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSkvorKrupnik JrS − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.027.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorKrupnik JrBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 214 vs 261 / 49251.9%53.1%111 / 214 vs 261 / 492Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.36/Krupnik Jr 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.6%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 5 · 10:10O. Skvor47111114113L. Krupnik Jr33751651
WOct 5 · 07:10O. Skvor331111113L. Krupnik Jr215880
O. Skvor10
WOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 06:40O. Skvor1.611111113P. Jokiel2.206680LOct 6 · 08:54J. Matus1.831111811113O. Skvor1.8371311452LOct 6 · 07:45O. Skvor1.4011115842J. Matus2.75591111113LOct 6 · 06:45O. Skvor1.539730P. Jokiel2.381111113LOct 6 · 05:45O. Skvor1.301081111122A. Strelec3.40121179143LOct 5 · 13:10D. Stefek2.201111113O. Skvor1.619670WOct 5 · 11:40J. Sindler2.63111361172O. Skvor1.44515117113LOct 5 · 11:10D. Stefek2.752111111113O. Skvor1.4011981382WOct 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.46111114113L. Krupnik Jr2.50751651
L. Krupnik Jr10
LOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113WOct 6 · 17:10F. Mandrysz1.67881111L. Krupnik Jr2.1011118113WOct 6 · 16:10P. Sturma2.10118781L. Krupnik Jr1.6771111113LOct 6 · 15:10L. Krupnik Jr1.9181110121F. Mandrysz1.8011812143WOct 6 · 13:40D. Stefek1.5011751182L. Krupnik Jr2.50711115113WOct 5 · 12:38L. Krupnik Jr2.101111123J. Sindler1.6775100LOct 5 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr2.25971161D. Stefek1.5711116113WOct 5 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5311118692L. Krupnik Jr2.38471111113LOct 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.46111114113L. Krupnik Jr2.50751651LOct 5 · 08:49A. Strelec1.6171111113L. Krupnik Jr2.20118761
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