TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Pikous vs Adam Brazda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111141012113119
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:20 and never touched: 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Adam Brazda below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Marcel Pikous at 65.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 24–16 Adam Brazda Adam Brazda has won 16 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pikous beat Brazda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2065.5%Our read67.6%to break even at 1.48
short by 2.1pp67.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.48 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (62%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-16 in 40
Pikous
Correct
gap of 8 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1690 vs Brazda 1568
Pikous
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 80% vs Brazda 40%
Pikous
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 70% vs Brazda 20%
Pikous
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous +4 · Brazda +2
Pikous
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Pikous) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.48 / Brazda 2.45
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Pikous)-2.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13260581
Pikous1.48
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 111 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 80 of 101
Brazda2.45
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 32 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous6wins
AwayBrazda4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous71.4%5 of 7
AwayBrazda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous7Brazda3n = 10Pikous took 7 of 10
S2Pikous5Brazda5n = 10split evenly
S3Pikous6Brazda4n = 10Pikous took 6 of 10
S4Pikous5Brazda2n = 7Pikous took 5 of 7
S5Pikous1Brazda2n = 3Brazda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousBrazdaP − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.934.0+5.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousBrazdaBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 695 vs 184 / 39853.5%46.2%372 / 695 vs 184 / 398Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.48/Brazda 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 14:00M. Pikous4181111113A. Brazda36119971
WSep 30 · 14:30M. Pikous341211113A. Brazda2710890
WSep 17 · 15:30M. Pikous4211119113A. Brazda28571151
LAug 6 · 21:30M. Pikous351171161A. Brazda4161113113
LAug 6 · 18:30M. Pikous35591291A. Brazda43111110113
WMar 12 · 17:00M. Pikous331111113A. Brazda155550
WMar 4 · 17:00M. Pikous341211113A. Brazda1710430
WMar 3 · 18:00M. Pikous541113712113A. Brazda48615111062
LMar 3 · 15:00M. Pikous48111081182A. Brazda47612117113
LFeb 9 · 16:30M. Pikous4349111182A. Brazda38111141113
M. Pikous10
WOct 7 · 16:00M. Pikous1.33711119113J. Pozarsky3.2511261182WOct 7 · 15:30V. Cermak2.637680M. Pikous1.441111113WOct 7 · 14:00M. Pikous1.5081111113A. Brazda2.50119971WOct 6 · 17:00M. Pikous1.951111113J. Tazler1.759980LOct 6 · 16:30M. Pikous1.61813111182M. Sychra2.201111713113LOct 6 · 15:00M. Pikous2.1091181172R. Wagner1.67117117113WOct 6 · 14:00J. Tazler1.61311991M. Pikous2.2011711113LOct 3 · 17:30M. Pikous1.9162100J. Louda1.801111123WOct 3 · 16:00M. Pikous1.3611916113J. Zuzanek3.008111461WOct 3 · 15:30M. Sychra2.201111371M. Pikous1.6191311113
A. Brazda10
WOct 7 · 16:30A. Brazda2.25811129113V. Cermak1.57112101182WOct 7 · 15:00A. Brazda1.80911118113J. Pozarsky1.9111761152LOct 7 · 14:00M. Pikous1.5081111113A. Brazda2.50119971LOct 5 · 20:58M. Klement1.501111113A. Brazda2.504430LOct 5 · 20:30M. Klement1.48111112113A. Brazda2.45961451LOct 5 · 19:30A. Brazda1.577590M. Vondrak2.251111113LOct 5 · 18:30L. Tonar2.30911911113A. Brazda1.5511611852LOct 2 · 21:03R. Rose1.4481211113A. Brazda2.631110241LOct 2 · 20:30O. Svacha1.441110613113A. Brazda2.63412111152LOct 2 · 19:30A. Brazda2.7510790R. Rose1.401211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Pikous
Nothing scheduled
A. Brazda
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