TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sychra vs Marcel Pikous 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191113311711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Marcel Pikous @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMartin Sychra above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 5-10
Point 73 set 4, 5-10 · our read held Marcel Pikous at 59.7%
73 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Martin Sychra 9–20 Marcel Pikous Martin Sychra has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:1559.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-20 in 29
Pikous
Correct
gap of 11 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sychra 1589 vs Pikous 1649
Pikous
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sychra 20% vs Pikous 60%
Pikous
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sychra 40% vs Pikous 60%
Pikous
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sychra -1 · Pikous +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pikous) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sychra form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSychra 2.20 / Pikous 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pikous)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233319
Sychra2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 146 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back27% 48 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 92
Pikous1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 109 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 56 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSychra5wins
AwayPikous5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSychra100%5 of 5
AwayPikous100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sychra5Pikous5n = 10split evenly
S2Sychra6Pikous4n = 10Sychra took 6 of 10
S3Sychra5Pikous5n = 10split evenly
S4Sychra5Pikous1n = 6Sychra took 5 of 6
S5Sychra0Pikous3n = 3Pikous took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSychraPikousS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.336.5−0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSychraPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime808 / 1546 vs 374 / 70552.3%53.1%808 / 1546 vs 374 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PikousSychra 2.20/Pikous 1.61
Hit
What we said
59.7%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Marcel Pikous @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
1–3
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 21:00M. Sychra5611101212112M. Pikous5813121010133
WOct 1 · 18:30M. Sychra331111113M. Pikous188640
LSep 27 · 19:30M. Sychra4761181482M. Pikous531181112113
WSep 10 · 02:30M. Sychra4111118113M. Pikous31931181
LSep 5 · 23:00M. Sychra217680M. Pikous331111113
WSep 5 · 14:00M. Sychra3911512113M. Pikous388111091
WAug 20 · 23:30M. Sychra331111113M. Pikous195680
LAug 16 · 02:30M. Sychra3741111832M. Pikous49118811113
WAug 9 · 03:28M. Sychra4311119123M. Pikous336611101
LAug 8 · 22:30M. Sychra136520M. Pikous331111113
M. Sychra10
LOct 3 · 14:30J. Zuzanek1.831281311113M. Sychra1.83141111862WOct 3 · 12:59J. Zuzanek1.6711991182M. Sychra2.10811118113LOct 3 · 12:00M. Klement2.2011911113M. Sychra1.61511991LOct 3 · 11:00J. Zuzanek1.831111143M. Sychra1.8358120LOct 3 · 10:30M. Sychra1.918850M. Regner1.801111113LOct 2 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.8011117143M. Sychra1.903511121LOct 2 · 01:30M. Sychra1.83811681S. Kasnik1.8311911113WOct 2 · 00:30M. Regner1.808135141M. Sychra1.91111111163WOct 1 · 23:30M. Klement2.2011890M. Sychra1.611311113WOct 1 · 22:30M. Sychra2.10661111123M. Vondrak1.67111188102
M. Pikous10
WOct 3 · 16:00M. Pikous1.3611916113J. Zuzanek3.008111461WOct 3 · 14:00M. Pikous1.83911911113J. Louda1.8311711812WOct 2 · 17:12M. Pikous1.431111113V. Vejvoda2.605940LOct 2 · 16:00M. Pikous1.837101191R. Wagner1.8311128113WOct 2 · 15:30V. Vejvoda2.63413761M. Pikous1.44111111113LOct 2 · 14:00M. Pikous1.91811411102J. Louda1.80113116123WOct 1 · 21:00M. Sychra1.8311101212112M. Pikous1.8313121010133LOct 1 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.50931112113M. Pikous1.50111181092WOct 1 · 19:00J. Louda1.83111091172M. Pikous1.83712116113LOct 1 · 18:30M. Pikous1.578640M. Sychra2.251111113
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