TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Jan Trefny 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611119911116118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 8–6 Jan Trefny Jan Trefny has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vedmoch beat Trefny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1354.0%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.8pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Vedmoch
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1552 vs Trefny 1583
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 80% vs Trefny 60%
Vedmoch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 50% vs Trefny 70%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +1 · Trefny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.70 / Trefny 2.02
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vedmoch)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13260567
Vedmoch1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 196 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it80% 148 of 184
Trefny2.02
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 38 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch6wins
AwayTrefny4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch66.7%4 of 6
AwayTrefny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch6Trefny4n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S2Vedmoch5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S3Vedmoch7Trefny3n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S4Vedmoch5Trefny2n = 7Vedmoch took 5 of 7
S5Vedmoch1Trefny3n = 4Trefny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochTrefnyV − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.7+3.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime726 / 1372 vs 84 / 16252.9%51.9%726 / 1372 vs 84 / 162Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.70/Trefny 2.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 16:00M. Vedmoch3741111113J. Trefny28114581
LOct 4 · 02:59M. Vedmoch551111911132J. Trefny54613119153
WOct 4 · 02:30M. Vedmoch4011711113J. Trefny27811531
WSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch45111112113J. Trefny35761481
WSep 4 · 03:30M. Vedmoch331111113J. Trefny249960
LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch491110111252J. Trefny53812814113
LSep 1 · 08:00M. Vedmoch4341113692J. Trefny511171111113
WAug 31 · 10:30M. Vedmoch511171111113J. Trefny3613114532
WAug 26 · 01:30M. Vedmoch341111123J. Trefny2679100
LJul 30 · 02:30M. Vedmoch188550J. Trefny331111113
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 7 · 20:00J. Prokupek2.257111071M. Vedmoch1.5711812113WOct 7 · 19:00J. Dedek2.501111891M. Vedmoch1.5013911113WOct 7 · 18:30M. Vedmoch1.731111113J. Plachy2.003880WOct 7 · 16:00J. Trefny1.91114581M. Vedmoch1.8041111113LOct 7 · 15:00M. Sedlak3.00115912113M. Vedmoch1.36811111072WOct 7 · 14:30M. Vedmoch1.671111113J. Plachy2.107770WOct 5 · 20:58M. Vedmoch2.501111113K. Brozhik1.504940WOct 5 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.337111151M. Vedmoch3.2511813113LOct 5 · 19:30M. Vedmoch3.0081113992P. Zmuda1.361181111113LOct 5 · 18:30T. Janata1.44951112113M. Vedmoch2.63111151082
J. Trefny10
LOct 7 · 16:00J. Trefny1.91114581M. Vedmoch1.8041111113WOct 7 · 15:30J. Plachy2.38411100J. Trefny1.531113123WOct 7 · 14:00J. Trefny1.571111113M. Sedlak2.256790WOct 7 · 13:30K. Darin2.2581190J. Trefny1.571113113LOct 7 · 12:30J. Trefny1.40881171K. Darin2.7511115113WOct 7 · 11:00J. Trefny2.00111611113J. Prokupek1.73618881WOct 7 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.67711481J. Trefny2.1011811113WOct 4 · 02:59M. Vedmoch1.401111911132J. Trefny2.75613119153LOct 4 · 02:30J. Trefny2.38811531M. Vedmoch1.5311711113WOct 4 · 01:30P. Fojt1.57611991J. Trefny2.2511611113
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